Morgan Stanley Strategists See Inflation As Key For Path Of Stocks

(Bloomberg) -- “Mixed” messages from key US economic data and the accompanying swings in stock markets mean investors should load up on defensive sectors such as consumer staples, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.

April Inflation figures due next week will offer fresh insights about the US economy after employment data out Friday showed the labor market is cooling. Some traders took the latest jobs numbers as an indication that the Federal Reserve will be able to start cutting interest rates as early as September.

A soft landing or a so-called no landing, where growth is resilient even as rates stay high, both remain possible for the US economy, the team led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note. This uncertain backdrop warrants an investment approach that can work as market pricing and leadership between groups of stocks gets whipsawed by the potential outcomes. 

Read more: Hedge Funds Buy Protection With Defensive Stocks, Goldman Says

“One might even want to consider adding a bit of exposure to defensive sectors like utilities and staples,” in the event that gauges of business activity slow further, Wilson said.

Read more: US Jobs Post Smallest Gain in Six Months as Unemployment Rises

The consumer price data will have a major role in “informing the path of monetary policy and the market’s pricing of that path,” Wilson said. “The price reaction on the back of this release may be more important than the data itself given how influential price action has been on investor sentiment amid an uncertain macro set up,” he added.

The S&P 500 has climbed over the past two weeks amid optimism that Fed easing is still likely this year, with solid corporate earnings supporting sentiment. The US benchmark closed Friday above 5,100 points, about 14% higher than Wilson’s 12-month target of 4,500.

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