Turkey’s Erdogan Faces Last Chance to Avert NATO Rupture

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Arriving in Osaka on Friday for his thirteenth Group of 20 summit, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a greatly diminished figure, arguably the weakest he has ever been in the company of his global peers. He is coming off a humiliating election setback in Istanbul, with his country’s first economic recession in a decade, and its relations with the West badly frayed.

Turkey faces sanctions for defying its NATO allies by purchasing Russian military hardware, and the European Union is threatening to freeze customs-union negotiations for its drilling activities in the eastern Mediterranean.

When he meets with U.S. President Donald Trump, Erdogan will be in a geopolitical Last Chance Saloon. The imminent arrival of Russian S-400 missile-defense systems that Turkey purchased will trigger events likely to inflict even more pain on the economy, and bring NATO ties to breaking point.

For Trump, too, this may be a final opportunity—to pull Turkey back from a deepening Russian influence, and restore its place in the alliance. Russian President Vladimir Putin will also want to capitalize on the Turkish leader’s new vulnerability. But Trump has the better argument. 

The Turkish president should need no reminder of what his country stands to lose if it installs the Russian systems: the U.S. will withhold delivery of 100 F-35 fighter jets, suspend Turkey’s participation in the manufacturing of its parts, and possibly impose new sanctions on an already tottering Turkish economy.

But Erdogan has painted himself into a corner, insisting that he will go ahead with the S-400 purchase, consequences be damned. Having just suffered his most serious political reversal in years, he might be loath to look weak by reversing himself on the deal.

So, rather than repeat the threats, Trump should concentrate on giving Erdogan a way to back down without losing face.

The easiest option is what could be called the Cyprus Solution. In the late 1990s, the Greece-backed government in Cyprus bought the Russian S-300 missile defense system, setting off a crisis in NATO. Turkey, arguing that its aircraft would be within range of the missiles, threatened military strikes if the systems were installed. This, in turn, jeopardized the delicate peace between Turkey and Greece, both NATO members.

In the end, thanks in part to American mediation, the S-300 system was transferred to the Greek island of Crete, far enough away that it could not menace Turkish aircraft. Russia got its money, and peace was restored between Ankara and Athens. 

Turkey’s S-400 deal is more complicated. At risk is not just one NATO member, but the security of the entire alliance. The Russian system could well allow Moscow to harvest vital information on new-generation fighter-jets like the F-35, making them less effective against Russian missile batteries. The S-400 system can’t simply be transferred to some other NATO location.

What Turkey can do, though, is take delivery of the system… and never install it. If Erdogan commits to mothballing the S-400—perhaps at one of the NATO bases in Turkey—that would eliminate the threat to the alliance. Russia would, as in the Cyprus case, still get paid. The system is thought to cost $2.5 billion.

At the same time, Trump could remind Erdogan that Turkey already has an alternative: the U. S. has sweetened its offer of the Patriot missile-defense system by agreeing to transfer some of its technology. Together with the F-35s, this should more than satisfy Turkey’s security needs.  

Putin might squawk, because he is keen to pry Turkey away from NATO. And Russia is not lacking leverage over Turkey, whether through its natural-gas interests or their loose collaboration in Syria. But Erdogan knows that American leverage is much greater, especially on the Turkish economy.

A variation of the Cyprus Solution would give Erdogan a political off-ramp from the dangerous course he has been steering in recent years. If he chooses not to take it, Trump will at least know that he gave a NATO ally every chance to redeem itself.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Gibney at jgibney5@bloomberg.net

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Bobby Ghosh is a columnist and member of the Bloomberg Opinion editorial board. He writes on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and the wider Islamic world.

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