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What Helped KCR’s Early Election Gamble Pay Off In Telangana

KCR’s shot in the dark turned out better than he would’ve hoped for.

File photograph of Telangana Rashtra Samiti chief K Chandrashekar Rao. (Source: PTI)
File photograph of Telangana Rashtra Samiti chief K Chandrashekar Rao. (Source: PTI)

K Chandrashekar Rao’s shot in the dark to call state assembly elections in Telangana six months earlier than scheduled has turned out better than he would’ve hoped for.

Not only has his party, the Telangana Rashtra Samiti, swept the state but it has also improved significantly its tally from the previous assembly elections. The TRS is leading in 86 out of 119 seats—from the 65 seats it had won in 2014. The Congress, even with its alliance with the Telugu Desam Party, is leading in 20 seats.

What Helped KCR’s Early Election Gamble Pay Off In Telangana

KCR’s bet paid off for two reasons mainly: His pro-people governance and Congress hastily cobbling up an alliance with the TDP months ahead of the elections.

“TRS came in based on a very significant issue for the voters: a separate Telangana state. But we’ve actually seen them deliver on good governance,” said Richard Rossow, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I certainly hope that some of the regional parties that pop up in the coming years and decades take this into account: once you take power, you’ve got to shed the rebel hat and start working on the things that the voters want to see like growth, jobs. It seems to be working very good for Telangana.”

Rossow said the KCR’s government is returning to power on both performance and identity. He likened the TRS chief to “rebels” such as Mamata Banerjee and to some extent, Arvind Kejriwal. However, unlike the two, KCR actually also focused on the needs of the people, he said. “Not always when the rebels get power in a state, do they actually adopt that. Telangana is an interesting model that way.”

Agreed author and political analyst Shankkar Aiyar who said KCR’s schemes, such as those involving direct cash transfers, are something even the Bharatiya Janata Party can learn from. “I think they (BJP) will take a page out of what KCR has done in Telangana,” Aiyar said. “KCR has managed his succession very well too.”

K Chandrashekar Rao addresses a public gathering at Nalgonda district. (Source: PTI)
K Chandrashekar Rao addresses a public gathering at Nalgonda district. (Source: PTI)

But there was another key factor that led to a TRS landslide: Congress’ last-minute grand alliance with the TDP.

Krishna Ananth, chair at SRM University’s history department in Amaravati, explained that KCR resonated more with the people because he had championed the separation of the state from Andhra Pradesh. One the other hand, the TDP had opposed it while the Congress was cynical about it.

That meant the opposition alliance didn’t have enough chemistry, Ananth said. “One thing is clear, the Congress jumped the gun. They didn’t look at what chemistry means to a political alliance. It only proves that elections are not just a game of arithmetic.”

There are two important things here. Five years was a pretty good honeymoon period for the TRS and the second part of it is that the Congress bungled going in for this ‘Mahakutami’ (grand alliance).
Krishna Ananth, Chair and Professor, Department of History, SRM University Amravati
(Source: PTI)
(Source: PTI)

Aiyar predicted that the Congress will never get the kind of power in Telangana as they had enjoyed under former two-time chief minister, the late YS Rajasekhara Reddy. “The TDP was formed against the Congress by NT Rama Rao. The Congress had sacked him. The Congress was ambivalent, or at best, supported TRS’ idea of Telangana as a state. Chandrababu Naidu had opposed the formation of Telangana,” Aiyyar said. “One month before the election you come together and think this marriage will work? I mean, really? Such a level of opportunism will not find purchasers.”

When you come to finer details, you need to look at whether the TDP votes didn’t transfer to the Congress, or the Congress votes didn’t transfer to the TDP.
Shankkar Aiyar, Political Analyst and Author

KCR: The Lone Wolf?

KCR’s victory also showcases his intentions to go to Delhi in a position of strength without aligning with either the Congress or the BJP, according to Sanjay Pugalia, editorial director at Quintillion Media. “You will find a new development gradually unfolding where KCR will try to be on his own.”

Brace yourself for a new role for KCR.
Sanjay Pugalia, Editorial Director, Quintillion Media

Pugalia said this could also result in speculation about which way other regional parties such as the Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal or other smaller parties in south India will go during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Aiyar said the development is positive. “The formation of a federal front is a good thing to represent regional interests.”