Apple Investors Seek Clues on Next iPhones With Results

(Bloomberg) -- When Apple Inc. reports results on Tuesday, investors will seek insight into upcoming new iPhones and how the current flagship iPhone X is performing. They also want executives’ latest thoughts on the growing trade dispute between the U.S. and China.

The Cupertino, California-based technology giant is expected to announce fiscal third-quarter revenue of $52.3 billion, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s in line with the company’s recent forecast and translates to year-over-year revenue growth of about 15 percent, the strongest for Apple’s June quarter since 2015. Higher iPhone average selling prices, increased services revenue, and unit sales growth for the Apple Watch should drive the expansion, analysts say.

iPhone

Apple sold about 41.8 million iPhones in the third quarter, up almost 2 percent from a year earlier, according to Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Because of the $1,000 iPhone X starting price, analysts on average are expecting iPhone revenue to grow about 17 percent year-over-year, Sacconaghi said in a recent note. He’s looking for an average iPhone price of $690, up from $606 in the year-ago quarter.

Steady sales growth like this suggests consumers are still buying iPhones despite expectations that Apple, for the sixth year in a row, will revamp its smartphone lineup in or around September.

Read about Apple’s future iPhone plans here.

Investors and analysts will also be closely watching Apple’s fiscal fourth-quarter outlook. This is the period when new iPhones are often unveiled. Analysts see September quarter revenue of about $59.5 billion, which would represent 15 percent year-over-year growth.

Apple’s fourth-quarter forecast will give clues to when the new iPhones will debut, according to Shannon Cross of Cross Research. Last year, the iPhone X was unveiled in November, later than usual.

"We’re looking for 3 percent growth this quarter, 1 percent growth next quarter, and flat growth next year, leading analysts to model for the iPhone growth story coming to a close," said Gene Munster, a veteran Apple analyst and co-founder of Loup Ventures. He sees annual iPhone unit growth of zero to 5 percent for the next several years.

Apple’s Services division is expected to pick up the growth baton from iPhones. The company wants Services to be a $50 billion business in coming years, and analysts are expecting revenue from this business to top $9 billion in the fiscal third quarter, according to Bernstein research.

Apple Music streaming subscriptions and App Store sales should power services growth in 2019. Beyond that, the company’s impending online video offering may bolster the division’s expansion, Munster said.

Trade

While Apple is expected to report solid revenue growth, the Trump administration’s simmering trade war with China looms over the company. While products like the iPhone and iPad are designed in the U.S., they are assembled in China-based factories run by the likes of Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. and Pegatron Corp.

So far, Apple has not publicly been affected by tariffs, and Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook has expressed optimism about Apple’s fortunes. Still, the executive told President Trump earlier this year that tariffs "were not the right approach." Analysts will likely ask the CEO about this on Tuesday.

"Apple is going to have to address trade during the earnings call, especially given their extensive involvement in the Chinese supply chain," Cross said. "My guess is that they will emphasize the investments they’re making in the U.S. as that could be their best angle here."

iPad

Analysts differ on iPad performance in the fiscal third quarter. Cross Research is predicting iPad unit sales of 12.1 million, while Bernstein sees 10 million. Apple rebooted its iPad strategy recently to focus on high-end Pro models and cheaper versions geared toward the education market.

The company plans new iPad Pros with iPhone X features this year. That could boost iPad sales in the fiscal fourth quarter and the upcoming holiday quarter, depending on when in 2018 the devices are upgraded. Bernstein is predicting an iPad average selling price of $440 in the fiscal fourth quarter, suggesting the cheaper models will be more popular. IPad Pro prices range from $649 to $1,279, while the low-cost model ranges from $329 to $559.

Other Products

For more on Apple’s future, check out the Decrypted podcast:

Apple’s Other Products segment, one of the company’s fastest growing, includes the Apple Watch, AirPods, HomePod, Apple TV, and accessories like the iPad’s detachable keyboard. Bernstein expects revenue from the category to jump 40 percent year-over-year to $3.8 billion in the fiscal third quarter. The company is planning its first full Apple Watch redesign and new AirPods later this year, Bloomberg News has reported.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Gurman in San Francisco at mgurman1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net, Alistair Barr, Molly Schuetz

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