Motilal Oswal: India’s Quarterly Economic Outlook - Higher Inflation Complicates Matters
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Motilal Oswal Report
With the worst quarter behind us, the economic environment has turned clearer, but not necessarily in an expected way.
While real gross domestic product growth declined further than expected, the real surprise has been on the inflation front.
Consequently, we have now revised our real GDP decline forecast from 4.7%/3.5% YoY in real/nominal terms for the year to 6.5%/5.3%.
Notwithstanding the massive contraction in economic activity, we have revised headline/core inflation projections to higher levels of 5.9%/5.4% now from 5%/2.3% earlier.
In the past quarter, the Indian rupee has moved broadly as expected.
Thus, we revise it marginally to 74.5/ U.S. dollar for FY21 from an average of 74.8/U.S.dollar earlier.
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