Motilal Oswal: India’s Automobiles Q1 Wholesales Review
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Motilal Oswal Report
Escorts Ltd.’s tractor dispatches grew approximately 9.5% YoY to 5.3 kilo units (versus estimate 6.07 kilo units) in July 2020. Domestic sales increased approximately 9.9% YoY while exports grew approximately 3.9% YoY.
Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd.’s tractor volumes grew 27% YoY to 25.4 kilo units (versus estimate 22 kilo units). We have factored in 3.5% volume growth for FY21E, implying 13% residual growth or 27.7 kilo units.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.’s wholesales declined marginally by approximately 1.1% YoY to 108 kilo units (versus estimate 96.6 kilo units). Domestic volumes grew approximately 1.3% YoY to 101.3 kilo units (versus estimate 91 kilo units).
Hero MotoCorp Ltd.’s volumes declined approximately 4% YoY to 514.5 kilo units (versus estimate 535.8 kilo units). We estimate volumes to decline approximately 11.8% in FY21E, implying residual growth of 13.5% or run-rate of 571.8 kilo units.
TVS Motor Company Ltd.’s wholesales declined 9.6% to 252.7 kilo units (versus estimate 240.2 kilo units). Two-Wheeler volumes were down approximately 8.2% YoY to 243.8 kilo units. Domestic Two-Wheeler declined 9% YoY, whereas Two-Wheeler exports declined 5%.
Ashok Leyland Ltd.’s wholesale dispatches stood at 4,775 units (versus estimate 3,111 units), down 56.3% YoY.
Eicher Motors Ltd.’s Royal Enfield (RE) dispatches declined approximately 25.6% YoY to 40.3 kilo units (versus estimate approximately 41.7 kilo units). Domestic retails were broadly similar to wholesales.
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