Indian Economy Update - Sequential Slackening Continued In May As State-Level Restrictions Widened: ICRA
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ICRA Research Report
The impact of the second Covid-19 surge and the widening state-wise restrictions led to a sequential decline in volumes across most indicators in May 2021.
This, in conjunction with a receding of the favourable base effect, led to a deceleration in the year-on-year expansion of many indicators in May 2021 relative to April 2021.
Nevertheless, given the distortion related to the lockdown base, we have compared the volumes in May 2021 with the pre-Covid levels of May 2019.
As many as 10 of the 13 non-financial indicators recorded lower volumes in May 2021 relative to May 2019.
With the fresh cases having moderated substantially and a phased unlocking underway, we expect the sequential momentum to improve over a variety of high frequency indicators in June-July 2021, although the evidence is mixed so far.
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