India GDP Preview - Q1 FY22 GDP At 16% On Relatively Quick Recovery: Nirmal Bang
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Nirmal Bang Report
We peg gross domestic product growth for Q1 FY22 at 16%, up from our earlier estimate of 10% on a relatively swift recovery in June 2021 as the economy opened up after the second Covid-19 wave in India.
In addition, since lockdowns were mainly concentrated in May 2021, the economy was functioning at least at 90% capacity even as the second wave was hitting a peak.
Finally, while the formal economy was resilient amid the second Covid-19 wave, even the informal manufacturing economy did not go into a complete shutdown, unlike in Q1 FY21.
With the better-than-expected performance in Q1 FY22, we raise our GDP forecast for FY22 to 8.5% from 7% earlier.
Our gross value added forecast for FY22 stands at 8.3%.
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