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India Economy Watch - CPI Inflation Below Our Expectations In November: Motilal Oswal

India Economy Watch - CPI Inflation Below Our Expectations In November: Motilal Oswal

<div class="paragraphs"><p>A vendor counts money in a vegetable stall in Gangtok, Sikkim, India. (Photographer: Prashanth Vishwanathan/Bloomberg)</p></div>
A vendor counts money in a vegetable stall in Gangtok, Sikkim, India. (Photographer: Prashanth Vishwanathan/Bloomberg)

BQ Blue’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer BloombergQuint’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy.

Motilal Oswal Report

Consumer price index-based retail inflation came in at 4.9% YoY in November 2021 as against 4.5% YoY in October 2021. The number is below our forecast of 5.3% YoY and Bloomberg consensus of 5.1% YoY. It implies that April-Nov-21 inflation averaged 5.2% YoY as against 6.9% YoY during Apr-Nov-20.

Food inflation stood at 1.9% YoY in Nov-21 (versus our forecast of 2.9% YoY) as compared to 0.9% YoY in Oct-21. Lower deflation in ‘vegetables’ resulted in it contributing higher to overall inflation in Nov-21 versus Oct-21.

CPI inflation, excluding vegetables, stood at 6.7% YoY, similar to what it has been in the previous five months. Just like in Oct-21, the other items propelling rise in headline inflation was ‘cereals and products’, ‘fruits’, ‘milk and products’, and ‘sugar confectionery’. Notably, ‘fuel and light’ (CPI weightage: 6.8%) inflation came in lower at 13.3% YoY in Nov-21 after three-months of consecutive rise.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

Motilal Oswal Economy Observer CPI Nov.pdf

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