ICICI Securities: Vaccine Hopes Drive Oil Prices Up; OPEC+ Also Does Its Part 
A valve control wheel connected to crude oil pipework in an oilfield. (Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg)

ICICI Securities: Vaccine Hopes Drive Oil Prices Up; OPEC+ Also Does Its Part 

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ICICI Securities Report

Brent is up 34% from lows in end-October 2020 driven by hope that Covid-19 vaccines would lead to demand recovery.

The oil price surge is despite second wave of Covid in Europe and U.S. (which has led to demand recovery reversal), and surge in Libyan oil output from 0.1 million barrel per day to 1.25 million barrel per day.

Biden administration lifting U.S. sanctions on Iran oil exports is another risk. U.S. oil rig count is up 40% from lows in mid-August 2020, which together with high oil prices may drive further recovery in U.S. oil output.

OPEC+ deciding to raise output from January 2021 more modestly than earlier agreed is likely to ensure global supply deficit even in Q1 CY21E.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

ICICI Securities Oil price view Dec20.pdf

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