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ICICI Securities: Tata Consumer Products ‘Show Me’ Verses ‘Trust Me’ Value Creation Story

ICICI Securities: Tata Consumer Products ‘Show Me’ Verses ‘Trust Me’ Value Creation Story

Bags of Tata tea are arranged for a photograph in Mumbai, India (Photographer Scott Eells/Bloomberg News)
Bags of Tata tea are arranged for a photograph in Mumbai, India (Photographer Scott Eells/Bloomberg News)

BQ Blue’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages. These reports offer BloombergQuint’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy

ICICI Securities Report

Consensus (including us) believes and hopes in ‘value creation story’ of Tata Consumer Products a 60% and 140% stock returns over one year and three years is testimony. The phase of ‘Trust me’ story is over. With TCPL’s FY22 valuations at a premium to Colgate, Godrej Consumer Products, Marico, it’s now a ‘Show me’ story.

Tata Tea (India) needs to sustain 6-8% volume growth via formalization, market share gains due to regionalization and premiumisation. Tata Salt volume growth needs to accelerate to 8% (from approximately 5% earlier). It generates lowest revenue/grammage among packaged food products in India and hence distribution was capped due to higher freight costs. Merger of distribution (mixed load) will help to reduce freight cost and leverage the brand potential.

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ICICI Securities Tata_Consumer Update.pdf

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