ICICI Securities: High Optimism Returns To Consensus Earnings After Sharp Downgrades Post-Covid-19
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ICICI Securities Report
Covid resulted in the steepest downgrade to forward earnings since Global Financial Crisis which, as articulated in our earlier note, improved the prospects for earnings beat going ahead.
Q2 FY21 validated this phenomenon as beats outpaced misses due to low expectations, cost-saving initiatives, rural demand, benign input prices and pockets of pent-up demand due to festive season.
However, earnings optimism is again rising to unsustainable levels as the expected CAGR of the Nifty50 Earnings Per Share over FY20-FY23E based on consensus numbers is ~22%, which will be the highest 3-year CAGR in earnings since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.
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