Hurricane Ida Impact - Gas, LNG, PVC Prices, Gross Refining Margin Surge; Oil Rise Modest: ICICI Securities
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ICICI Securities Report
Three weeks after hurricane Ida struck, 2.9-0.9% of U.S. oil and gas output (15.1-3% at peak), 3% of refining capacity (13% at peak) and 0-6% (9-41% at peak) of petrochemical capacities are still shut.
Oil is above pre-Ida lows as Shell’s Gulf of Mexico output may be down 250,000-100,000 barrels per day in Q4 CY21-Q1 CY22 and U.S. output is set to fall month-on-month in September 2021.
Reuters’ Singapore GRM is up 103% versus average levels on August 23 to 26; gross refining margin recovery may not sustain as fuel oil cracks rise is the main driver while auto fuel cracks rise is modest.
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