GDP Grows in Q3 FY21, But Postulated Q4 FY21 GDP Decline A Statistical Aberration: SBI Research
File photo of construction work takes place on National Highway 1, in Amritsar, India. (Photographer: Pankaj Nangia/Bloomberg News)

GDP Grows in Q3 FY21, But Postulated Q4 FY21 GDP Decline A Statistical Aberration: SBI Research

Bookmark

BQ Blue’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer BloombergQuint’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy.

SBI Ecowrap Report

India’s economy exited the recession and grew by 0.4% in Q3 FY21 after contracting 24.4% in Q2 and 7.3% in Q3.

India is now one of the few major economies to post growth in the last quarter of calendar year 2020, with improvement in the economy’s performance inversely tied to a drop in Covid-19 infections (even in most of the European economies the GDP contraction became more deep in Q4 2020 as compared to Q3 2020). But as India has seen an uptick in cases over the last few weeks, it has raised the risk of a new round of localised lockdowns. New curbs on movement of people or restrictions on businesses are a risk to the nascent recovery, given that gains in Q3 quarter probably came from the reopening of the economy.

Q4 GDP growth is however estimated to decline in Q4 FY21 because of a statistical aberration with food subsidy clean up. GVA for Q4FY21 is at 2.7% and it is a better estimate to gauge economic recovery in the current background when tax numbers are notoriously fickle.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

SBI Ecowrap - GDP grows in Q3FY21 but postulated Q4FY21 GDP decline a statistical aberration.pdf

DISCLAIMER

This report is authored by an external party. BloombergQuint does not vouch for the accuracy of its contents nor is responsible for them in any way. The contents of this section do not constitute investment advice. For that you must always consult an expert based on your individual needs. The views expressed in the report are that of the brokerage and do not represent the views of BloombergQuint.

Users have no license to copy, modify, or distribute the content without permission of the Original Owner.

BQ Install

Bloomberg Quint

Add BloombergQuint App to Home screen.