GAIL To Gain, But City Gas Distribution May Be Hit By Spot LNG Surge, Says ICICI Securities
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ICICI Securities Report
Japan Korea Market spot liquefied natural gas price is up approximately eight times from lows in May 2020 to $14.6/million metric British thermal unit as LNG exports by 14 of 19 exporters are down YoY in Q4 CY20 due to outages, while cold weather boosted demand in Northeast Asia.
Vaccines for Covid-19 has led to 46% jump in Brent from lows of end-October 2020 to approximately $54/barrel of oil.
Surge in oil and spot LNG, but Henry Hub prices remaining subdued, may mean GAIL India Ltd.’s H2 FY21E gas marketing Ebitda may be as high as Rs 19.1 billion versus loss of Rs 8.9 billion in H1.
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