Why What Happens in Syria Matters Beyond Its Borders

(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump’s decision to stand down American forces as Turkish tanks rolled into northeastern Syria to push back a Kurdish militia was met with concern by the president’s backers in Washington and U.S. allies beyond. An international coalition destroyed Islamic State’s self-declared caliphate centered in Syria, but what happens in this Middle Eastern country still reverberates far beyond its fragile borders. From the U.S. to Russia to Iran and the European Union, the eight-year war for control of Syria has drawn in outside powers as well as foreign militants, and its final battles could reshape the balance of power in a volatile region. Here are some of the considerations:

Syria’s Neighborhood

A country of about 20 million before a 2011 uprising against President Bashar al-Assad descended into war, Syria stands at the center of a web of conflicts that have convulsed the Middle East. To the north lies Turkey, which has battled for decades against Kurdish separatists and is loath to allow the rise of a Kurdish proto-state from the chaos of Syria’s war. To the east is Iraq, whose own long-running conflict contributed to the rise of Islamic State. Syria also borders Israel, which captured Syria’s strategic Golan Heights plateau in 1967 and with which it technically remains at war, and Lebanon, long a center of instability. Assad’s alliance with Iran and its Lebanon-based Hezbollah proxy have provided a further layer of volatility, with Israel launching airstrikes on Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria. Russia has backed Assad, in part to protect its access to Syria’s Mediterranean port of Tartus, which can help it project military power to the doorstep of Europe. By helping the regime reclaim nearly all the terrain once held by Syrian rebels, Russia has emerged as the premier power in Syria. Some of Trump’s political allies oppose a U.S. retreat in Syria for fear it would reward Russia and Iran.

The Threat From Islamic State

Rolling back the frontiers of Islamic State’s self-declared caliphate took years of grueling warfare involving the Kurdish YPG militia now in Turkish sights, pro-Assad forces and a U.S.-led international coalition that mostly provided air support. But the jihadist group remains a threat. Members who melted into the population have been waging an insurgency in Syria, conducting assassinations, ambushes and suicide bombings. The Kurds control camps and detention centers housing more than 70,000 captured fighters, their families and others displaced by the conflict. Some are foreigners, and their home countries, which include European nations, mostly don’t want them back. What to do about the children of Islamic State fighters, growing up in the camps, has turned into an ethical and security conundrum. The Kurds have warned these places are “ticking time bombs.” Islamic State formed as militants broke away from an Iraqi branch of al-Qaeda, and experts fear any collapse in security amid a Turkish military operation could seed the Middle East’s next extremist threat.

The Fate of Refugees

In addition to killing an estimated 500,000 people, the Syrian war has triggered an exodus of refugees. Turkey hosts 3.7 million Syrians -- the world’s largest refugee population. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants his army to secure a “buffer zone” 32 kilometers (20 miles) deep along 440 kilometers (275 miles) of the Syrian border to resettle 2 million of those people. The move is designed to relieve domestic pressure on Erdogan, who lost Turkey’s largest cities in municipal elections this year, and would also help transform the ethnic composition of Syria’s northeast, diluting the influence of the Kurds. The vast majority of Syrians who fled since the war began are ethnic Arabs and hail from other parts of the country. A resettlement program could set Turkey up for confrontation with Assad’s government, which has warned that the return of refugees to Syria must be coordinated and cannot be used as a way to “ethnically cleanse” certain areas.

Europe’s Migrant Fears

Turkey receives EU funding to prevent migrants from using its territory as a corridor to Europe. This arrangement was created after mass movements in recent years spurred a populist backlash across the bloc, contributing to the rise of more anti-immigrant and anti-EU parties. Erdogan wants more funding and has the option of reopening the gates toward Europe to get his way. He’s expressed concerns that an all-out offensive by the Assad regime and its backers on Idlib, the final holdout of the Syrian rebels, will trigger a new refugee wave.

Syria’s Oil

Even before the war, Syria was only a modest producer of oil and gas, averaging 400,000 barrels per day between 2008-2010, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, most of it exported to Europe and Turkey. Proven reserves stood at 2.5 billion barrels as of January 2013, according to estimates in the Oil & Gas Journal. That’s dwarfed by neighboring Iraq’s 145 billion barrels. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp., and Total SA were among companies working in ventures with the state-run Syrian Petroleum Co. before the war. Most of Syria’s major oil assets are located in the Kurdish-controlled northeast. Exploration could also lead to the discovery of off-shore gas reserves given that giant deposits were found in Mediterranean waters further south near Egypt, Israel and Cyprus.

The Future of the Kurds

Erdogan has sent troops into Syria with one overriding aim. He wants to push the Kurdish YPG militia -- its full name is the People’s Protection Units -- deeper into Syrian territory to stall any attempt to cement a de facto Kurdish mini-state on his country’s doorstep. That’s because the YPG has ties to separatist Kurds who have been fighting Turkey’s army for decades, and Erdogan fears the groups could at some stage use Syrian territory to launch attacks on Turkey. The YPG says it is only interested in protecting the lives of Kurds in northern Syria. It is among America’s closest partners on the ground in the fight against Islamic State, receiving direct U.S. backing and weapons. Its apparent abandonment by the U.S. is bitter. Only two months earlier, the U.S. persuaded the Kurds to dismantle some of their outposts near the Turkish border to make way for a planned separation zone distancing them from the Turkish military. Though Trump said he opposes a Turkish incursion and is not abandoning his battlefield allies, the decision to pull back American troops and stand aside leaves them exposed.

The Reference Shelf

• Related QuickTakes on who’s still fighting in Syria and why, the YPG, the Syrian war and the Kurds.
• The International Crisis Group explores the conflict over Syria’s northeast.
• Another ICG report explains the risks of an escalation between Israel and Iran.

--With assistance from Selcan Hacaoglu.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Williams in London at mwilliams108@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Lin Noueihed at lnoueihed@bloomberg.net, Lisa Beyer

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