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Why Turmoil in Belarus Is Spilling Over Its Borders

Why Turmoil in Belarus Is Spilling Over Its Borders: QuickTake

A throwback to a different era, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is a man with staying power who has become a problem for Europe on its eastern flank. The autocrat branded the continent’s “last dictator” has led the former Soviet state for almost three decades. His claim to a sixth term after a disputed election in August 2020 set off a burst of popular opposition that led to a crackdown on dissent. The coerced landing of a Ryanair jet and the spectacle of a Belarusian Olympic athlete seeking sanctuary in Poland focused attention on Belarus in 2021, as did the European Union’s accusation that the country was instigating a refugee crisis by helping migrants cross illegally into the EU. Meanwhile, Russia views Belarus as perhaps its closest ally, a buffer against encroachment by NATO and the EU.

1. Why do people want him gone?

Lukashenko, 67, has been in power since Belarus’s first presidential election as an independent republic in 1994. Much has changed in the world since then, a full decade before the EU expanded eastward to absorb many of the former communist states that had been under Soviet influence. Lukashenko, though, has kept his country of 9.3 million people — which lies at a geopolitical crossroads, sandwiched between the EU, Russia and Ukraine — aligned to the east, receiving financial and political support from Moscow. Belarus remains reliant on its potash exports, as well as imports of discounted Russian crude oil, which it refines and sells abroad at a profit. Discontent has simmered as Lukashenko failed to diversify the cash-strapped economy. But it was the 2020 election that got people onto the streets, defying riot police and calling for strikes.

2. What happened in the election?

The fairness of previous landslide victories by Lukashenko had been slammed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which monitors elections. This time, key challengers to him were detained or kept off the ballot. But Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the wife of jailed opposition blogger Siarhei Tsikhanouski, was allowed to register. She drew huge crowds at rallies nationwide. So when officials declared Lukashenko had won 80% of the vote, protests erupted and Tsikhanouskaya fled to Lithuania under pressure from authorities. The upheaval continued for weeks and led to some deaths.

3. How did authorities respond to the protests?

More than 35,000 people were detained, sparking international condemnation. As of October 2021, Belarusian officials had brought criminal cases against about 3,000 opponents of Lukashenko. In one of them, the Supreme Court sentenced the former head of a bank who sought to challenge Lukashenko in the election to 14 years in prison after he faced charges of bribery, conspiracy and money-laundering, which he denied. Other activists, including Tsikhanouski and Maria Kalesnikava, who was prominent in the opposition’s campaign, also went on trial, with the latter receiving an 11-year jail sentence. Many more remained under investigation in overcrowded remand prisons.

4. Why has the world taken notice? 

With an increasingly fractious global political backdrop, events in Belarus have resonated. In one shocking incident in May 2021, authorities in Minsk scrambled a Mig-29 fighter jet and used a fake bomb threat to force a Ryanair plane flying from Athens to Vilnius to land in the Belarusian capital. They arrested a Belarusian passenger, journalist Raman Pratasevich, who had risen to prominence covering the 2020 protests. Three months later, Belarusian sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya said she was pressured to leave the Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo early for criticizing sporting officials from her country. Taken to the airport against her will, she refused to board her flight and was granted refuge in Poland. EU members Poland and Lithuania, which have offered shelter to opposition figures from Belarus, accuse Lukashenko of retaliating against them by channeling thousands of migrants, many from the Middle East, across their border. To control the flow, Lithuania planned to build a 508-kilometer (316-mile) fence while Poland declared a state of emergency along its frontier.

5. What’s been the response?

As with its ally Russia, the go-to tool to try to bring Belarus into line is sanctions. The U.S., EU and U.K. all imposed measures on Belarus following the Ryanair incident and other developments. The EU slapped trade restrictions on petroleum products and potash fertilizers, the country’s main sources of foreign currency revenue, and was preparing other measures following the migrant crisis. The U.S. also targeted the country’s Olympic committee and business leaders and companies with ties to Lukashenko. The U.K. barred Belarusian airlines from flying over Britain or landing there and also prohibited the purchase of Belarusian government bonds.

6. What’s Russia offering?

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Lukashenko loans, energy supplies and, if needed, police support. Putin in the past has shown little love for Lukashenko, whom Russia tried to weaken ahead of elections in 2010, but rallied to his support when the street protests erupted.

The Reference Shelf

  • A Bloomberg article on the seizing of Pratasevich and a story on EU sanctions.
  • An Associated Press report on Olympic athlete Tsimanouskaya’s return to Europe.
  • A Bloomberg report on Lithuania’s plans for a border fence.
  • The post-election response and crackdown, and EU and U.S. reaction.
  • A Businessweek profile of Tsikhanouskaya.
  • A New York Times analysis of Lukashenko’s “fading aura of invincibility.”
  • The head of the Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy writes on military options in Belarus.

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