How Sudan’s Coup Is Threatening Foreign Aid, Path to Democracy

(Bloomberg) -- Sudan’s military has long been the country’s pre-eminent power broker. It propped up dictator Omar al-Bashir for three decades before ousting him in 2019 following months of protests against runaway inflation and brutality. Then in October, the army toppled the uneasy coalition of civilian and military figures that had run the North African nation since that popular uprising. The coup sparked unrest and a deadly crackdown by security forces, put hundreds of millions of dollars of international aid at risk and dashed hopes of a speedy transition to democracy. A new power-sharing arrangement collapsed as 2022 began, effectively returning full control to the generals.

1. Why was Sudan’s government so shaky?

Under a power-sharing deal signed between military and opposition leaders in August 2019, a civilian-military administration was supposed to govern for three years until elections. It was led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, a lieutenant-general who had headed a military council that took charge after al-Bashir’s overthrow. Abdalla Hamdok, an economist who had worked for the United Nations and African Development Bank, was appointed prime minister. Divisions within the unwieldy governing structure grew increasingly apparent, as the army appeared to seek to protect its privileges from new oversight. Ex-rebel groups and a large community in eastern Sudan joined senior military officials in accusing the government of failing to deliver on its promises to improve people’s lives. In September, the military said it had stamped out a mutiny.

2. What happened in the coup?

Al-Burhan dissolved the sovereign council and declared a nationwide state of emergency, claiming the nation’s security was being compromised because of the differences between the military and civilian components of the administration. Soldiers surrounded Hamdok’s home and he was taken to another location after he refused to endorse the October takeover; several cabinet ministers and many activists were also arrested. 

3. What was the reaction? 

Although al-Burhan insisted the military was committed to the eventual staging of free elections, demonstrations erupted in Khartoum, the capital, calling for the generals to surrender political power. At least seven people died and more than 140 were hurt in clashes that followed the power grab when soldiers opened fire on a crowd, according to doctors. In November, Hamdok was restored to office in a pact that was rejected by activists. He resigned on Jan. 2 as protests and deaths continued, warning that the country risked sliding into chaos and reminding the military that “the people are the final sovereign authority.”

4. What’s at stake?

Under al-Bashir, who seized power in 1989, Sudan became isolated on the international stage. He spearheaded an Islamist revolution that for a time in the 1990s turned Sudan into a haven for terrorists such as Osama bin Laden and was indicted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes and genocide in the western region of Darfur. Hamdok’s administration moved to repair relations with the U.S., which rescinded its three-decade listing of the country as a sponsor of terrorism, and moved toward normalizing relations with Israel. Shortly after al-Bashir’s ouster, regional heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates promised a lifeline to the government by pledging $3 billion in aid. The International Monetary Fund later also promised support, while the Paris Club of creditors agreed to restructure $23.5 billion of its debt. The goodwill and financial assistance appeared to dissipate, with the U.S. putting a $700 million emergency aid package on hold just hours after the coup. 

5. What are the regional implications?

The military takeover is the latest setback to democracy in Africa, following coups in Guinea and Chad, and saw Sudan’s suspension from the African Union. It could also complicate talks aimed at resolving a standoff over the filling of a giant dam that Ethiopia is building on a tributary of the Nile River, and which threatens to interrupt the water supply downstream in Egypt and Sudan. A military government in Sudan could also take a more proactive stance in opposing Ethiopia’s claims to land in the al-Fashqa area, which straddles a mutual border, raising the potential for conflict.

6. What are Sudan’s economic challenges?

A 2005 peace deal that ended a two-decade civil war led, six years later, to the partitioning of the country into Sudan and a new South Sudan. The new nation took control over three-quarters of oil reserves, stripping the north of a large chunk of its revenue and foreign exchange. The government tried to diversify the economy by encouraging mining, but it remains a fledgling industry, and the bulk of the country’s 45 million people depend on subsistence agriculture. In December, the finance minister said the 2022 economic growth forecast had been scrapped as a result of donor suspensions and the government was weighing tax increases and cuts in wheat and electricity subsidies, steps that could provoke more unrest. Sudan is already among the world’s poorest nations, ranking 170th out of 189 countries on the UN Development Program’s human development index.

The Reference Shelf

• Bloomberg stories about a blockade of Sudan’s main port, the coup, and ensuing protests.
• Sudan needs more than mild outrage from the U.S, writes Bloomberg Opinion columnist Bobby Ghosh.
• The IMF’s summary page on Sudan.
• The International Criminal Court’s case against al-Bashir.

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