Why Protests Are Raging Against Sudan’s Leader

(Bloomberg) -- When Omar al-Bashir led a military coup that kicked off Sudan’s Islamic revolution in 1989, he probably didn’t imagine one day taking direction from the International Monetary Fund. He’s done so nonetheless, devaluing the currency and cutting government subsidies in a bid to steady an economy reeling from the loss of three-quarters of its oil reserves when the crude-rich southern part of the country seceded in 2011. Now al-Bashir is the one facing rebellion. Protests that erupted in towns countrywide against soaring living costs have dragged on for almost three months, prompting a brutal crackdown by the security forces and pleas to other countries for financial help.

1. How did the economy get so bad?

Sudan was engulfed in civil war for two decades before a peace deal was struck in 2005 and led to the country being split in two. South Sudan assumed control over most oil fields, stripping the al-Bashir administration of a large chunk of its revenue and foreign exchange. Recent declines in crude prices have further dented income from Sudan’s reduced output. While the government has sought to diversify the economy by encouraging mining, it remains a fledgling industry, and the bulk of the population depends on subsistence agriculture to survive. In October 2017, the U.S. lifted economic sanctions it had imposed on Sudan two decades earlier for its alleged sponsorship of terrorism.

2. How serious are the protests?

While there have been previous uprisings against al-Bashir’s rule, the scale of the demonstrations that began Dec. 19 is unprecedented. More than 45 people have died as protesters have clashed with security forces, while more than 2,600 have been arrested, according to rights group Amnesty International. The government’s figures show that 30 have died. The outlawed Sudanese Professionals Association has played a leading role in sustaining the uprising, and organized a one-day strike in early March that saw doctors, teachers, pharmacists and journalists staying home.

3. What are the protesters’ grievances?

Their initial gripes were about skyrocketing costs of food, medicine, fuel, electricity and transport -- price increases largely driven by several currency devaluations and the scrapping of subsidies in line with the IMF’s recommendations. Shortages of gasoline and banknotes stoked the outrage, and there are widespread complaints about government corruption, inefficiency and intolerance of dissent. Much of the anger has been directed against the 75-year-old al-Bashir and calls have mounted for him to resign.

4. How has the government responded to the unrest?

Al-Bashir has accused foreign countries and “mercenaries” of inciting the violence and rejected demands to step down, saying elections are the only path to change. In late February, he declared a one-year national state of emergency when the unrest showed no signs of dying down, dissolving the central and regional governments and appointing security chiefs in the 18 regional states. The security forces have used teargas and live rounds to break up protests, and have raided homes and university campuses. Some school and university classes have been suspended, while internet access and the use of social media has been curbed.

5. Has al-Bashir offered any carrots?

The president’s attempts at reconciliation include pledging pay increases for state workers, replacing his finance minister and other top officials and establishing a new body to combat corruption. He has also called for the protesters’ concerns to be addressed through dialogue. Central Bank Governor Mohamed Khair al-Zubair announced plans to seek funding from unidentified nations in a bid to boost revenue and bring in hard currency, but there have been no recent signs of aid materializing.

6. Where can Sudan turn for support?

Gulf Arab nations are most likely to look favorably on requests for aid. Unidentified countries in the region granted Sudan about $2 billion in concessional loans in 2015, the Finance Ministry said at the time, while state media in the past two years has reported the central bank receiving deposits from the United Arab Emirates. Sudan has strengthened its relations with Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. in the past four years, contributing aircraft and thousands of troops to their battle against rebels who have seized control of Yemen’s capital and the surrounding area. Turkey’s government has also voiced support for al-Bashir, with a senior ruling party official describing the protests as a ploy against a legitimate government.

7. Is al-Bashir at risk of losing power?

It’s possible but unlikely to happen imminently. While street protests helped topple Sudan’s government in 1964, the security forces have quashed previous uprisings this decade, and there are no signs that their loyalty to the president is wavering. Al-Bashir, who has been indicted for war crimes and genocide by the International Criminal Court, has, however, stepped down as leader of the ruling party. A vote has been postponed on proposed constitutional amendments that would abolish presidential term limits and clear the way for him to stand for re-election in 2020.

8. Why is the world taking notice?

Beyond humanitarian concerns, there are trade issues involved. Prior to South Sudan’s succession, Sudan ranked as sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest oil exporter, and it still produced 72,000 barrels of oil a day in 2017, latest available data shows. It also serves as a conduit for all crude produced in the south. Sudan’s government has signed an accord with Russia’s Rosneft Oil Co. and Rosgeologiya OAO to build a 200,000-barrel-a-day refinery at Port Sudan on the Red Sea. The country is also the world’s biggest exporter of gum arabic, a sap that’s extracted from acacia trees and used in sodas and pharmaceuticals.

The Reference Shelf

• A Bloomberg story about the central bank’s efforts to salvage the economy and another about al-Bashir’s response to the crisis.
• The IMF’s summary page on Sudan.
• Amnesty International’s response to the state of emergency.
• The International Criminal Court’s case against al-Bashir.
• BBC country profiles of Sudan and South Sudan.
• A Washington Post story on Sudan, Algeria and a second Arab Spring.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mohammed Alamin in Khartoum at malamin1@bloomberg.net;Mike Cohen in Cape Town at mcohen21@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Karl Maier at kmaier2@bloomberg.net, Michael Gunn, Andy Reinhardt

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