Why France’s Macron Needs Every Vote to Beat Le Pen

(Bloomberg) -- France’s presidential election has revealed a nation drifting toward the political extremes, with more than half of voters picking far-left or far-right candidates in the first round on April 10. The result sets up a tense endgame in which President Emmanuel Macron will face off against Marine Le Pen, a longtime admirer of Russia’s Vladimir Putin who wants to pull the European Union’s only nuclear power out of NATO’s integrated command structure and ban Muslim women from wearing the veil in public. A Le Pen victory would strike at the heart of Europe’s post-war liberal consensus. If Macron prevails, he’d be the first incumbent to do so since Jacques Chirac 20 years ago. 

1. Who is expected to win?

Macron won most votes in the first round and surveys still show him beating Le Pen, the leader of the National Rally party and daughter of anti-immigrant firebrand Jean-Marie Le Pen. Her campaign gained momentum recently with a pledge to help working families cope with soaring energy and food prices. Macron beat her comfortably at the last election in 2017 thanks to millions of voters switching allegiance from other mainstream candidates. Since then, support for the old established parties has declined. Meanwhile, Le Pen is likely to pick up votes from defeated far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon and ultra-right former media pundit Eric Zemmour, who came third and fourth respectively in the first round. Surveys put Macron’s vote share in the second round on April 24 at between 51% and 54%, way below the 66% he got in 2017.

2. Why are French politics becoming more extreme?

Le Pen and other anti-establishment candidates have lured voters away from mainstream parties by channeling popular anger over crime, job insecurity and a perceived decline in living standards. The Socialists, the party of Macron’s predecessor Francois Hollande, have never recovered since many members quit to join Macron’s new centrist party, enabling his victory in 2017. Le Pen has benefited from the emergence of Zemmour, who has put racial grievances at the center of French politics and whose voters may rally behind her in the second round.  

3. What role has the war in Ukraine played?

Conflict and instability can boost the popularity of sitting presidents, and Macron has devoted more time to foreign affairs than his predecessors did in election years. While he ultimately failed to dissuade Putin from attacking Ukraine, voters appeared to approve of his efforts. Rivals have pushed the narrative that Macron was played by the Russian leader, but all the leading election candidates have welcomed Putin or his ideas at some point. Le Pen’s party took a loan from a Russian company in 2014 and, while she disavowed Putin after the invasion, her previous praise for him may haunt her during the last leg of the campaign. 

4. How big an issue is the economy?

Many voters approve of the way Macron steered the country through the worst of the pandemic. Economic indicators are good. Labor and tax reforms may finally be delivering results, with low unemployment and economic confidence boosting morale. If this continues, it could mark a shift in the course of the EU’s economic history, with France no longer perceived as one of the bloc’s problem economies. What voters may have noticed for now, however, is the rising cost of living -- a theme that Le Pen has played on throughout the campaign. 

6. What does Macron stand for?

It’s hard to find a political label for the former investment banker who began his career in public life as a socialist. As finance chief under his predecessor Francois Hollande, he cast himself as an economic liberal. While out campaigning in 2017, Macron spoke about fighting inequality and called France’s colonization of Algeria a crime against humanity. More recently, with polls suggesting the French increasingly prefer right-wing candidates, Macron’s rhetoric has followed. He backed legislation to preserve French secular values that was seen by some on the left as stigmatizing Muslims. He scrapped a symbolic wealth tax and called on the French to retire later. On the other hand, he pledged to support jobs and livelihoods through the worst of the Covid crisis, extended paternity leave and opposed the erosion of worker pay in the EU -- all left-leaning policies.

7. What does Le Pen stand for?

Le Pen has sought to moderate her views for her third run at the presidency. She dropped a plan to ban dual citizenship -- a calling card of the far right -- and scrapped toxic policy proposals including an explicit pledge to pull France out of the European Union. She’s tried to win over younger voters with promises of tax breaks to the under-30s, and to soften her image -- sharing personal stories about her life as a single mother with three children and her Bengal cats. Her party’s broad anti-immigrant platform remains, and includes a pledge to fine Muslim women for wearing headscarves in public. 

9. What else should we watch for?

The legislative elections of June 12 and June 19 shouldn’t be forgotten. If the new president doesn’t hold a majority in parliament, his or her hands will be tied, and that person could end up with a prime minister from another faction -- something that happened in the 1980s and the 1990s. Macron’s party has recently shown its weaknesses locally, with poor results in city and regional elections. So even if Macron is re-elected, it’s not certain that he’ll get to implement his policies. 

The Reference Shelf

• Bloomberg Opinion’s Lionel Laurent discusses the impact of the Ukraine war on the election and how Macron faces a tougher ride against Le Pen this time.
• Maeva Cousin of Bloomberg Economics says a Le Pen win would be a political earthquake.
• Bloomberg Economics lays out the economic backdrop to April’s vote.
• QuickTake explainers on France’s Yellow Vest movement and how to read French polls.

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