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Why Greece’s Road to Elections Runs Through Macedonia

Why Greece's Road to Elections Runs Through Macedonia

(Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has a lot riding on resolving a seven-decade naming dispute with his country’s northern neighbor, the Republic of Macedonia. Though the two sides are moving toward finalizing an agreement, the peril for Tsipras isn’t over. That’s because the accord could cost him his government, precipitating a snap election before its term expires in October 2019.

1. What’s the naming dispute?

The Republic of Macedonia, an independent state of 2 million people born out of the breakup of Yugoslavia, wants to join NATO and the European Union. But Greece, which as a member of both groups has a veto over new admissions, insists that the name Macedonia should refer only to its own northern region, which was Alexander the Great’s stronghold in ancient times. In June, Tsipras and his counterpart, Zoran Zaev, agreed that the Republic of Macedonia would change its name to the Republic of North Macedonia. The agreement was approved in a referendum and by parliament in Macedonia, finalizing a constitutional reform to change the country’s name.

Why Greece’s Road to Elections Runs Through Macedonia

2. What’s left for Greece to do?

With the Macedonian parliament having approved the reform of its constitution, Greece’s parliament now needs to ratify the agreement. Tsipras’s former coalition partner, the nationalist Independent Greeks party, has long voiced its strong opposition to any use of the word Macedonia by the country to the north. Its leader, Panos Kammenos, quit the government forcing Tsipras to call a confidence vote, which he won on Jan. 16, with a thin majority of just 151 votes in Greece’s 300-seat chamber.

3. So what’s expected to happen?

Tsipras will likely get sufficient support in parliament for ratification of the Macedonia deal since lawmakers from other parties are rooting for the agreement. Potami party, with five members in the Parliament, has been advocating in favor of the deal and some of its lawmakers are expected to back Tsipras in the vote, which will take place by end-January. Managing to ratify the agreement will confirm Tsipras’s control of the parliament and possibly extend the government’s lifeline to autumn, when its term officially ends. Failure to approve the agreement could force Tsipras to call snap elections as early as May.

4. Why is the Macedonia issue important to Tsipras?

In a re-election campaign, he’d like to cite a resolution to this historic dispute as one of his accomplishments, along with pulling Greece out of financial bailouts and the painful conditions that came with them. He made a big bet that he could resolve the Macedonia conflict, personally taking over the foreign ministry in October and committing to see the agreement through. His administration could use a foreign policy win, particularly after 2017 talks with Turkey failed to advance efforts to reunify a divided Cyprus. If Macedonia joins NATO, the military alliance will extend its influence to a place where Russia’s presence is strong, improving regional security and, the Tsipras administration hopes, earning Greece credit with its neighbors.

The Reference Shelf

  • An International Crisis Group paper on the name dispute.
  • A commentary in Stratfor.com argues that the dispute is essentially a clash of national narratives.
  • Bloomberg columnist Leonid Bershidsky writes about the issue.

To contact the reporter on this story: Eleni Chrepa in Athens at echrepa@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Sotiris Nikas at snikas@bloomberg.net, Lisa Beyer, Paul Tugwell

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.