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Why Ethiopia’s Mega-Dam Has Its Neighbors Fuming

Why Filling Ethiopia’s Mega-Dam Riles Nile Region

Ethiopia has been at loggerheads with downstream neighbors Egypt and Sudan for years over a $4.8 billion mega-dam it’s building on the Nile River. Tensions ratcheted up in early July when Ethiopia resumed filling a 74 billion cubic-meter (2.6 trillion cubic-foot) reservoir behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The three nations hadn’t yet agreed on a timetable. Egypt described the unilateral action as a violation of international law and took its case to the United Nations Security Council.

1. Why is the dam so significant?

The Nile is the most important source of fresh water in a largely arid region that is very vulnerable to drought and climate change and is experiencing rapid population growth. Egypt relies on the 4,000-mile-long river for as much as 97% of its supply, much of eastern Sudan’s population depends on it for survival, and Ethiopia is counting on a 6,000-megawatt hydropower plant on its new dam to boost the nation’s electricity supply by 150% and sustain its manufacturing industry.

2. What’s the issue with filling the reservoir?

Ethiopia closed the dam’s gates in July 2020 and collected about 5 billion cubic meters of water in a week after the onset of the rainy season. A drought ensued in Sudan, followed by flooding that officials said could have been averted by a more measured approach to the filling. The Ethiopians want to capture another 13.5 billion cubic meters of water this year, a plan its neighbors warn will have catastrophic consequences. Egypt has suggested that the filling be drawn out over about 15 years to minimize the fallout.

3. Can the three sides reach an accord?

It’s possible, since doing so would be in their mutual interests. But mediation efforts that have drawn in the U.S. and African Union failed to yield a compromise. Ethiopia argued that it wasn’t obliged to negotiate with anyone, even as it participated in the talks. Most recently, Ethiopia rejected a proposal by Egypt and the Sudan for mediators from the U.N., the U.S. and the European Union to join renewed negotiations.

4. How does Ethiopia justify building the dam?

Ethiopia has asserted its right to tap water that traverses its territory and accused Egypt of acting as if it has the sole right to the Nile. It says it isn’t bound by the terms of a 1959 bilateral treaty between Egypt and Sudan that divided most of its water between themselves. The dam and hydropower project, which began in 2011, underpins Ethiopia’s ambitious development drive spearheaded by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who stands to lose support at home if he buckles to pressure to delay its commission.

5. What do Egypt and Sudan say?

Egypt has accused Ethiopia of refusing to agree to release a permanent, minimum volume of water from the dam in the event of severe drought. Its foreign minister, Sameh Shoukry, has warned that while Egypt and Sudan are committed to talks and a peaceful settlement, “all options are on the table” when it comes to reaching that goal. During Omar al-Bashir’s rule, Sudan accepted Ethiopia’s assurances that the dam would help control flooding and that Sudan would benefit from the power generated. Since al-Bashir was toppled in 2019, Sudan has aligned itself with Egypt, saying the Nile is joint property and an agreement must be reached before the dam can be filled.

6. What’s the potential for armed conflict?

Egypt has downplayed a military solution to the standoff, stating that while it can protect its interests, it’s more interested in reaching a fair and binding agreement. It’s unlikely the Egyptians would stage an air strike or that the Security Council would take decisive action, according to Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa project director at the International Crisis Group. The Arab League has sided with Egypt and Sudan and demanded that an accord be reached that protects their water flows.

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