Why the EU’s Balkan Expansion Faces a Long and Winding Road

(Bloomberg) -- In the map of the European Union lies a conspicuous and large hole where five former parts of Yugoslavia plus Albania are located. The leaders of those countries are keen to join the bloc, while the EU, concerned about stability in the west Balkans and the growing influence of Russia and China, is also eager -- just not right now with a pandemic going on, and not before its conditions are met.

1. Who wants into the EU?

Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo. The hopefuls from the western Balkans form a cluster extending eastward from Croatia, the EU’s latest addition in 2013, all the way to Greece and Bulgaria, its poorest nation. The region is still recovering from Yugoslavia’s bloody breakup, Europe’s worst conflict since World War II, amid lingering ethnic enmities, struggling economies and geopolitical jostling by global powers.

2. Why expand the EU?

The states aspiring to join are already surrounded by other members of the EU, which first extended into former communist Europe in 2004 and won’t be truly complete without the swathe on the continent’s underbelly. Geography, history and strong economic ties -- the EU is by far the region’s biggest investor and trade partner -- support arguments for expansion, which could help stabilize politics in those countries and would increase one of the world’s biggest trading blocs by 18 million people. Allowing them to join would also lift living standards in nations that have seen millions of citizens migrate to more affluent EU states in search of better lives.

3. How soon can they join?

The earliest for some would be 2025. Criteria include democratic standards, governance, economic resilience and external relations. It typically took a decade for other ex-communist states to prepare. Serbia and Montenegro are the front-runners, while Albania and North Macedonia may start accession talks. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo have yet to become official candidates. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has urged the bloc to offer a “target date, not just the perspective” of being accepted.

4. What are the hurdles?

The biggest is the tension between Serbia and its former province Kosovo, which unilaterally declared independence in 2008, as the bloc won’t consider candidates with open border disputes. Years of EU mediation between the wartime foes has produced little progress. A solution could prompt five EU countries that don’t recognize Kosovo to join the bloc’s majority in accepting it as a sovereign state. The most dysfunctional individual country is Bosnia-Herzegovina. It has a power-sharing system between three main ethnic groups following a 1992-95 war, with the Serb part at times threatening to secede. 

5. How eager is the EU?

The U.K.’s tortuous departure and backsliding on democracy from Hungary and Poland have made some members reluctant to embrace more entrants. The virus has also made the issue less of a priority. North Macedonia and Albania won approval in 2020 to start accession talks, but negotiations haven’t begun amid opposition from France and other states that argue the EU must first resolve internal challenges. Also, Bulgaria is blocking North Macedonia over issues of language and shared history. Having mobilized 3.3 billion euros ($3.9 billion) in 2020 for the western Balkans, the EU said in an October 2020 report that a “credible enlargement policy is a geostrategic investment in peace, stability, security and economic growth in the whole of Europe.” 

6. What would have to be done?

All six countries need to strengthen their economies and bring rules on taxes, environmental protection, intellectual property, food safety and energy up to EU norms. Their combined GDP is around $112 billion, less than half of Romania’s. Other shortcomings include weakness in institutions, the rule of law, human rights, transparency and accountability. Corruption and organized crime are endemic. While the EU is investing in infrastructure and local economies, entrenched interests in industries from energy to construction are hampering efforts to ensure fair competition. For decades governments have also provided state aid to companies they own or control, creating monopolies. Still, the would-be EU members offer highly-qualified, low-cost labor that was attracting foreign investment even before the pandemic prompted some EU manufacturers to move parts of their supply chains from Asia closer to home.

7. What’s the broader picture?

Accepting the nations into the EU would help insulate the region from the influence of Russia, China and Turkey, which have interests in deepening their footholds on the bloc’s doorstep. Three of the aspiring countries -- Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia -- are already members of NATO, while Serbia maintains military neutrality and keeps close ties with traditional ally Russia. China is also developing closer relations in the area (Serbia has bought its attack drones and is considering purchasing missiles) as well as providing investment and financing for infrastructure projects.

8. How eager are the candidates?

Joining the bloc is a top priority for all the western Balkan nations, where EU-skeptic political parties fare poorly in elections. Popular support for accession varies among the states, but those in favor outnumber those against. In its 2021 Balkan Barometer, the EU-backed Regional Cooperation Council asked respondents if membership would be good, bad or neutral for their economies. Montenegrins and Albanians were most eager to enter the bloc, while Bosnians showed least enthusiasm.

The Reference Shelf

• A Bloomberg article on Balkan foes and international lobbying.
• The European Commission report on the EU’s Western Balkans strategy.
• The Regional Cooperation Council’s Balkan Barometer opinion survey.
• A QuickTake on Kosovo and the EU.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.