What Austria’s Kurz Might Do If Given a Second Chance

(Bloomberg) -- When he took power in 2017, Austria’s Sebastian Kurz became the European Union’s youngest head of government. In May, he also became the shortest-serving chancellor in Austrian history and the first to be thrown out of office since the country was reconstituted after World War II. Now he’s trying to win re-election, and the Sept. 29 contest is becoming a test of voters’ faith in his leadership skills and his mix of populism and right-leaning centrism.

1. Why was Kurz ousted from office?

It all had to do with a leaked video showing one of his coalition partners behaving unethically. Filmed in the Spanish resort island of Ibiza in 2017, before the previous election, the excerpts made from a seven-hour recording showed Heinz-Christian Strache, then head of Austria’s far-right Freedom Party, promising state contracts for cash to a woman claiming to be a Russian oligarch’s niece and plotting with her to take over Austria’s largest tabloid newspaper.

2. Why did that affect Kurz?

Because he’s the one who, shortly after winning election in 2017, raised eyebrows by inviting Strache’s party into a governing coalition. The Freedom Party was founded by ex-Nazis in the 1950s and today advocates strict controls on immigration and rejects Islam. Strache resigned as vice chancellor one day after the Ibiza video was released in German media, raising hopes in his party that the coalition with Kurz could be saved. But when Kurz also demanded the resignation of another hard-line minister, the Freedom Party quit the coalition. That brought down Kurz’s government, creating the need for another election.

3. Can Kurz win again?

There were concerns that voters might blame the young chancellor for having brought the Freedom Party into his government and accorded it mainstream respectability. But the opposite happened in the wake of the video scandal: support for Kurz’s People’s Party rose in opinion polls and remains around 35%, some 3 percentage points above its share of the 2017 vote. He is still the most popular politician among those running for chancellor.

4. What has become of the Freedom Party?

Its support in polls dipped to around 20% from around 25% after the Ibiza video. While its hardcore base of supporters proved immune, much in the way die-hard fans of U.S. President Donald Trump are unfazed by his travails, the scandal has impaired the party’s reputation and credibility beyond its own followers. That limits its prospects as a future government partner. A smoldering internal rift between the party’s hardcore and moderate wings may also deepen after the election.

5. Is the opposition gaining any ground?

Some opposition parties are, especially the Greens, who are set to return to Parliament with an added boost from public concern over climate change. The biggest opposition party, the center-left Social Democrats, who led Austria’s governments for all but nine years since 1970, botched their reaction to the Ibiza scandal and were unable to profit from it. The party overplayed its hand by trying to pin the blame on Kurz, then joined forces with the arch-rival Freedom Party to bring him down. That cost the Social Democrats popular support, and they look set to lose votes compared to 2017. Some polls predict they could fall behind the Freedom Party.

6. What does that mean for the next government?

Kurz hasn’t ruled out resuming a coalition with the Freedom Party should he win. But he would be under greater pressure than two years ago to explore other alternatives first. He could revive his party’s longstanding alliance with the Social Democrats -- the default combination in Austria’s post-war governments -- or possibly the Greens. The business-friendly Neos party might also be an option, but only in a three-way coalition because its share isn’t likely to be enough to give Kurz a majority. The Social Democrats could try to form a government that bypasses Kurz, but that wouldn’t be easy because they’ve ruled out cooperation with the Freedom Party.

7. Where does Austria go from here?

The refugee crisis that framed Kurz’s rise to power is less pronounced in the current campaign, which has been dominated by follow-up debates around the Ibiza scandal and questions about campaign budget rules and the influence of party donors. Other election issues include climate policy, funding for the rising costs of elderly care, and tax and health reforms. However, if Kurz returns as chancellor, as polls suggest, he’s unlikely to drop his trademark hard line on immigration and may resume plans that had to be shelved when his previous government collapsed.

The Reference Shelf

• More on how a secret video felled Austria’s wunderkind leader.
• Ungovernable Europe is the new standard, as governments struggle in Italy, Spain, Belgium and elsewhere.
• A Bloomberg profile of Sebastian Kurz.
• Bloomberg Opinion’s Leonid Bershidsky says radical nationalist parties are deeply unreliable coalition partners.

To contact the reporter on this story: Boris Groendahl in Vienna at bgroendahl@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Chad Thomas at cthomas16@bloomberg.net, Andy Reinhardt, Chris Reiter

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