How Orban’s Putin Ties Are Adding to Election Stakes

(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s subversion of mainstream politics in Hungary has been a case study for aspiring populists and a cautionary tale for defenders of democracy. Orban now faces the biggest test to his rule, with opposition parties uniting to attempt to oust him in an April 3 general election and the European Union threatening to bleed his government financially. Russia’s invasion of Hungary’s neighbor Ukraine has further upended the campaign, jolting the economy and forcing a government known for its hostility to immigrants to embrace half a million refugees. 

1. What has Orban done to trigger criticism?

Since 2010, he’s dismantled checks on the government’s power, overhauling formerly independent institutions and appointing loyalists in the courts, the chief prosecutor’s office and the country’s media authority. A big parliamentary majority allowed Orban to write a new constitution that critics condemned as an attack on democracy and human rights. And he’s targeted minorities, including the Roma and LGBTQ communities, arguing the interests of the majority take precedence. In 2019, Hungary became the first EU country to lose its rating as a full-fledged democracy at Freedom House, a Washington D.C.-based institution that assesses political systems. 

2. How has his populism shaped Hungary’s politics?

Orban has overhauled the electoral law to favor the largest political party, helping his Fidesz movement to a so-called parliamentary supermajority in each of the past three elections by winning only about half of the vote. More recently, he’s sought to extend his sway over culture and education, appointing loyalists -- in many cases cabinet members -- to oversee universities. Business allies who accumulated much of their wealth thanks to state contracts have given Orban influence over the media. That’s allowed his government to sideline opposition voices and hammer home government messaging focused on perceived enemies, from immigrants to foreign corporate interests and the EU. 

3. What’s at stake in the vote?

The survival of Orban’s political system and the strength of like-minded movements across the EU. Six opposition parties spanning the political spectrum from liberal to green to conservative have formed a single ticket, with the aim of ousting him. A loss for Orban may restore frayed ties with western allies. If he wins, it may allow him to consolidate more power, deepening the stand-off with the EU. 

4. How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine impacted the election?

Before the conflict, the campaign was focused on state handouts, Orban’s anti-LGBTQ rhetoric, the rule of law and corruption. The war has undermined Hungary’s economic recovery from the pandemic, sent inflation soaring and prompted the government to expand subsidies to ease the burden on households. Orban is walking a tightrope after cultivating close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the past decade. He’s condemned the invasion and backed the EU’s economic sanctions on Moscow. Yet he’s offered only lukewarm support for Ukraine and resisted calls to cut imports of Russian oil and gas, saying it would bring the economy to a standstill. He’s dialed back his anti-immigrant rhetoric and even visited the border to hug arriving Ukrainian refugees, many of them ethnic Hungarians from the country’s west. 

Putin’s Old Ally in EU Faces Tough Vote as War Rages Next Door

5. So is there a chance Orban may lose power?

Polls suggest the election is close. Despite opposition efforts to portray him as Putin’s pawn, Orban has actually managed to boost his support with a pledge to keep Hungary out of the war and bar NATO allies from using its territory to deliver lethal weapons to Ukraine. The polls suggest a narrow win for Orban’s party, though not enough to secure another two-thirds parliamentary majority. And the decision by opposition parties to unite gives them a chance of scoring an upset. The outcome may hinge on voter turnout and results in about two dozen battleground electoral districts.

6. Would there be a clean break if Orban loses?

Even if the opposition wins, Orban may retain considerable influence. He’s installed loyalists for terms as long as nine years in key areas, including the chief prosecutor’s office and the media authority, and for life in posts overseeing universities. His family and allies hold sway over the economy, including finance, tourism, energy and the media. The opposition’s candidate for premier, Peter Marki-Zay, has vowed to fire Orban loyalists as a first step after an election win, even without the two-thirds parliamentary majority that may be needed to validate the move, setting up a potential clash that some political analysts say may spill onto the streets. Adding to the challenges, whoever wins the vote is in for a rough ride. The war has dented the economy and the next government will be under pressure to cut state spending.  

7. How has Orban averted EU scrutiny?

Orban has cast himself as a protector of sovereignty against what he’s branded as EU meddling in Hungary’s internal affairs. He’s been most effective with his anti-immigrant rhetoric, even building a razor-wire fence and expelling asylum seekers without due process. For much of his tenure, Orban outmaneuvered the EU, dragging his feet over demands for change, cutting deals that stopped short of meaningfully rolling back his power and exploiting shortcomings in the bloc’s own legal charters. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel also shielded Orban, arguing that pressing him too hard may prompt Hungary to follow the U.K. in its decision to leave the EU. 

8. Is the EU now changing tack?

The U.K.’s exit from the EU made many in the bloc recognize that arguably the biggest threat to it was from within. The European Parliament voted in 2018 to trigger a rule-of-law probe against Hungary on “a clear risk of a serious breach” of the EU’s democratic principles. A year later, the European People’s Party, the EU’s biggest center-right political group which until then had actively shielded Orban, suspended the Hungarian ruling party and effectively expelled it in 2021. In 2020, the EU agreed to adopt a new “rule-of-law” mechanism that threatened to cut funding to member states when the bloc’s financial interests may be undermined. The EU’s top court is expected to rule on the legality of the mechanism in early 2022. In the meantime, the EU has already delayed 7.2 billion euros ($8.2 billion) in pandemic-recovery funds to Hungary and may eventually withhold another 34 billion euros over rule-of-law concerns.

9. How has this reverberated in the EU and beyond?

Part of the reason for the EU action was the recognition that Orban’s model was spreading in the bloc. In 2015, the nationalist Law & Justice party took power in Poland pledging to emulate Orban’s policies. In Slovenia, another populist ally of Orban, Janez Jansa, took power. Italy’s Matteo Salvini and France’s Marine Le Pen have also forged close ties with Orban, seeing in the Hungarian leader’s track record a recipe to subvert mainstream politics in their own countries. In a bid to overhaul the EU, Orban has also tried to unite European nationalist parties, though he’s so far failed. In the U.S., former President Donald Trump and the right-wing establishment have taken notice, with Trump even endorsing Orban for April’s election.

The Reference Shelf

• A QuickTake explainer on how Poland and Hungary are challenging European law
• Bloomberg articles on how the EU bankrolled a rebellion within the bloc and how the war in Ukraine has upended the election.
• A Tucker Carlson interview of Orban on Fox News and a Guardian story on the fascination of the U.S. conservative wing with Hungary’s leader.
• A Bloomberg story on Marki-Zay, the unlikely challenger.
• A New York Times article on how Orban may exert his influence regardless of the election outcome.

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