Why Russia-Ukraine Tensions Are So Hard to Defuse

(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula ignited the tensest standoff between Moscow and the West since the Cold War. The region remains deadlocked, following years of conflict between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists in the country’s east. Since November, the U.S. has been warning European allies that Russia may be preparing to invade Ukraine, massing almost 130,000 troops near the border and staging the largest joint military drills in years in neighboring Belarus. Russia has repeatedly denied any intention to attack Ukraine, saying troop movements on its territory are an internal matter.

1. What’s sparked the flare up?

The U.S. has been raising the alarm with European Union nations about a buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine, sharing intelligence showing possible plans for a three-pronged invasion from Crimea, Russia and via Belarus. U.S. President Joe Biden told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in January that there was a “distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February,” according to U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne. 

2. Haven’t we been here before?

Yes. Russia increased troops in Crimea and deployed them close to its border with Ukraine in March and April 2021 amid fighting between the Ukrainian army and the Moscow-backed militants. Tensions subsided after Biden called his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and offered a summit that took place in June. That prompted speculation Putin had used the crisis to gain Biden’s attention. After the latest buildup, Putin said in November that the U.S. and its allies were failing to take Russia’s “red lines” seriously and that Moscow needed “long-term security guarantees.” He accused NATO of supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine and said the alliance was waging a pressure campaign against him. 

3. Why is this still a problem?

A 2015 truce ended the bloodiest fighting of the conflict, which has claimed more than 14,000 lives over about eight years. But the terms have never been fully met and a lasting resolution remains elusive. Protesters demanded a break from the nation’s Soviet past when they ousted Kremlin-backed Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. Putin justified his subsequent annexation of Crimea and support for the fighters in eastern Ukraine by saying he must defend Russian-speakers, wherever they are. Fearing encroachment, he continues to oppose goals now enshrined in Ukraine’s constitution -- including EU and North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership. 

4. What has the U.S. response been? 

There has been a flurry of diplomacy, sparked by video and phone calls that Biden held with Putin in December. Both sides have exchanged written proposals on how to calm tensions. The U.S. has warned of debilitating economic sanctions if Russia attacks, while the Kremlin says NATO expanding further east or deploying weapons in Ukraine are red lines. The U.S. embassy in Kyiv has ordered families of its diplomats to leave Ukraine and told other citizens they should depart the country immediately. About 1,000 American troops already in Germany were being sent to Romania while a further 2,000 troops were coming from the U.S., mostly destined for Poland, according to the Pentagon. They were in addition to some 8,500 U.S. troops placed on heightened alert for possible transfer to NATO allies in Eastern Europe. Biden has ruled out moving U.S. or NATO armed forces into Ukraine itself.

5. What about Germany and France?

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel was instrumental in helping to negotiate the truce, known as the Minsk accords, and the situation on Ukraine’s border is the first major international crisis for her successor, Olaf Scholz. Cast as the West’s weak link in deterring Russia, his administration has rejected sending weapons to Ukraine, citing Germany’s long-standing opposition to sending weapons into conflict zones, a legacy of its World War II role. German business has strong ties with Russia and the country relies on Russian gas for energy. Scholz held talks on Ukraine with Biden in Washington on Feb. 7, the same day French President Emmanuel Macron met with Putin for more than five hours in Moscow. Macron said there was a need to create new security and stability mechanisms, while Putin highlighted Russia’s security demands and said he saw reasons to continue talking. The Kremlin also didn’t confirm Macron’s claim that Putin agreed not to escalate the situation.

6. What’s been the sticking point?

Despite Zelenskiy pledging to bring lasting peace, he has little room to maneuver. The Kremlin wants its neighbor’s restive regions to gain autonomy that gives them an effective veto over major shifts in Ukraine’s orientation -- namely the Western integration backed by a sizable majority of its 41 million population. But granting such powers would be political suicide for Zelenskiy, who’s struggling to boost economic growth and curb corruption. He told diplomats that Ukraine needs a “very clear perspective” about its NATO membership in 2022, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that the alliance continues to support Ukraine’s efforts to become a member. Putin, meanwhile, has made clear he sees Ukraine’s ambition to join as an existential threat and is demanding security guarantees from the West to prevent it. 

7. What else does Russia want?

Russia demanded that NATO withdraw its forces to positions they occupied in 1997 as it set out sweeping proposals for a massive Western pullback in two draft security treaties presented to the U.S. government. Moscow also wants the U.S. to pledge to bar entry to NATO for ex-Soviet states such as Ukraine and Georgia and refuse to make use of their military infrastructure or develop bilateral defense ties with them. After Russia’s talks with the U.S. and NATO in January, an American diplomat said the Kremlin must decide if it’s interested in resolving the standoff over Ukraine or is seeking a pretext to invade. Russia has denied any intention to attack Ukraine.

8. What’s the fear?

If U.S. warnings of an invasion are borne out, it could mark the worst European security crisis since World War II, dwarfing the crisis triggered by Putin’s takeover of Crimea and the unrestrained fighting that characterized the earlier stages of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s five-day war with Georgia, another former Soviet republic that turned its gaze to the West, began in a similar fashion in 2008 and ended in effective annexation of rebel areas by Moscow. 

9. What assistance is Ukraine getting?

Ukraine has asked the U.S. for help defending its airspace and coast, and has received ammunition and other military supplies. The U.K. has sent light anti-armor weapon systems to Ukraine, while Latvia and Lithuania have pledged to send Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and Estonia will provide Javelin missiles. The three Baltic NATO members received approval from the U.S. to share weapons with Ukraine. 

10. What else can the West do about it?

The U.S., EU and U.K. have been finalizing a package of sanctions if Russia invades. The trio have in recent years imposed several rounds of sanctions targeting Russian individuals and companies, hitting the country’s energy and banking sectors. While Russia downplays their impact, its economy has stagnated and officials have pushed to have the punishments revoked. Potential measures include targeting Russian billionaires, additional restrictions on sovereign debt, disrupting lenders’ ability to use dollars or blocking the new Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s administration published regulations in early February strengthening the U.K. government’s powers to impose sanctions on Russia if it invades Ukraine, and widening the scope of who can be targeted. 

11. What further sanctions could come? 

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said Jan. 31 that efforts, being coordinated with U.S. allies, would be aimed at people who are “in or near the inner circle of the Kremlin and play a role in government decision making, or, at a minimum, complicit in the Kremlin’s destabilizing behavior.” She said many would be hit hard because they have deep financial ties with the West. U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss announced the British government was considering sanctioning oligarchs in an acknowledgment of criticism that Russian billionaires can stash their wealth in property and other assets in London.

The Reference Shelf

• A Politico contributor argues the promise of NATO membership has undermined Ukraine’s security.
• The Center for Strategic and International Studies shows satellite imagery of Russia’s military buildup.
• A Bloomberg story on where forces are assembling around Russia and Ukraine, and another on German policy in the region.
• A Bloomberg article on the troubled Ukraine peace accords.
• Bloomberg QuickTakes on U.S. sanctions aimed at Russia, how a country joins NATO and why Europe needs Russian gas.
• Brookings Institution papers on the annexation of Crimea, and on the Biden Presidency and Ukraine.
• A Chatham House paper on the 2015 accord.

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