What’s Next for Hezbollah After its Syria Adventure?
What's Next for Hezbollah After its Syria Adventure?
(Bloomberg) -- Since the early years of the Syrian civil war, Israel’s most threatening combatant has been busier on a different front. The Lebanese militant Hezbollah group, which last fought a war with Israel in 2006, has invested heavily since 2013 in helping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad prevail against groups that rebelled against him. Israeli officials have warned that a day would come when Hezbollah’s fighters would again turn their focus to the Jewish state, this time having gained significant combat experience and better weaponry. Israel’s discovery of tunnels it says Hezbollah militants dug to infiltrate it from Lebanon has raised concerns that the time is approaching.
1. How has Hezbollah fared in the Syrian war?
By training and backing up government forces, Hezbollah has played an important role helping the Assad regime retake control of more than 60 percent of Syria. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has made clear he’s in no hurry to bring his fighters home while the battle for the rest of the country continues. The U.S. State Department said in 2017 that the group had about 7,000 fighters in Syria. By one estimate, it’s lost 1,675 in the war. On the other hand, Hezbollah fighters gained new battlefield experiences, notably operating tanks provided by Syria and coordinating with air power provided by Russia. Plus, Hezbollah has grown closer to its benefactor, Iran, another Assad ally, which has improved the group’s armory.
2. How has its armory improved?
Israeli officials estimate Hezbollah has stockpiled approximately 150,000 missiles, compared to about 15,000 before the 34-day war in 2006 war that killed about 1,200 Lebanese and 165 Israelis. As before, most of its rockets are unguided, which means they’re generally lobbed toward a densely populated area in the hopes of hitting something. But now, Israel says Iran is supplying some equipped with guidance systems, so they can be aimed at strategic targets such as power stations and refineries. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the militant group is hiding missile upgrade facilities in and around Beirut, a claim the Lebanese government has denied. Israeli forces have repeatedly launched attacks inside Syria that they say were aimed at convoys delivering missile equipment from Iran.
3. Why did Hezbollah get involved in the Syria war?
It was a choice for survival. Syria is important to Hezbollah because Iran is a vital patron. The group depends on Iran for funding -- more than $700 million a year, according to a U.S. government official -- and for military training and equipment. But Iran and Lebanon aren’t geographically connected, so the two use Syria to move materiel from one to the other. Therefore it was imperative for Hezbollah to maintain an ally in a position of power in Syria.
4. Why is Iran so invested in Hezbollah?
Shiite Muslims in Lebanon formed what would become Hezbollah in 1982, in reaction to Israel’s occupation of the country’s south, but their movement was inspired by the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Shiite-majority Iran. Beyond the ideological alignment, Hezbollah to some extent became a proxy force for Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards. Hezbollah can attack Israeli and U.S. targets without provoking the reaction such a move by a state would precipitate. (The group is thought be have been behind the 1983 suicide truck bombings of the U.S. Embassy and U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, the 1984 attack on the U.S. Embassy annex in Beirut, and the 1985 hijacking of TWA flight 847.) The threat of Hezbollah’s hammer arguably gives Iran leverage over the U.S. and Israel, which it perceives as its main enemies.
5. What’s Hezbollah’s role inside Lebanon?
Even as it keeps fighting in Syria, Hezbollah continues to operate its large network of social services for its followers and to be politically active, with two cabinet ministers and 13 lawmakers in parliament. Its alliance with the Shiite Amal movement, headed by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, ensures that together they represent most of the country’s Shiite community. Hezbollah also has close ties with the Christian party founded by President Michel Aoun. As the only group that did not disarm at the end of the 1975-1990 Lebanese civil war, it has more clout than anyone else in Lebanon. After Israel ended its occupation of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah still refused to give up its guns, saying the Israelis remained in disputed areas along the border.
6. How is it regarded in the region?
Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm is a longstanding point of contention not just in Lebanon but also in some Gulf countries, most notably Saudi Arabia. Tensions have deepened since the predominantly Sunni kingdom and mainly Shiite Iran took opposite sides in regional sectarian conflicts that have ravaged countries like Yemen and Syria. The credibility Hezbollah gained across the Arab world, even among some Saudis, by fighting regional superpower Israel to at least a draw in 2006 has diminished. Before the Syria conflict began in 2011, Hezbollah had promoted itself as a force dedicated to fighting Israel and defending the oppressed, irrespective of their background. Now it’s viewed among many Sunnis as a Shiite group doing Iran’s bidding in the region.
The Reference Shelf
To contact the reporters on this story: Donna Abu-Nasr in Beirut at dabunasr@bloomberg.net;Jonathan Ferziger in Tel Aviv at jferziger@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Lin Noueihed at lnoueihed@bloomberg.net, Lisa Beyer, Amy Teibel
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