Understanding Putin’s Moves to Keep His Hold on Power

(Bloomberg) -- Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to retire. The Russian president, who first came to power in 2000, has set in motion a plan to reset the constitutional term limits that prevent him from serving beyond 2024 -- allowing him room to remain at the helm potentially for an additional 12 years. He said in March that Russia is still strengthening its political system after the turmoil that followed the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, and that while rotation of leaders would play its role in future, “stability is probably more important and should be the priority.”

1. What’s the main issue?

At the heart of the amendments, which have been approved by parliament and endorsed by the Constitutional Court, is a line that will reset the presidential odometer to zero. While future presidents will be banned from serving more than two terms in total -- at least without amending the constitution again -- the current incumbent will have his slate wiped clean. That means Putin, 67, who’s now in his fourth term would be allowed to serve as many as six in all, putting him on track to become the longest-reigning Russian ruler since Ivan the Terrible.

2. Are there other changes?

Quite a few. The changes are the most significant since Russia adopted its constitution in 1993 and include lots of populist red meat. They add a reference to God for the first time, effectively ban same-sex marriage, and offer assurances on better pensions and health care. Some, such as one that will make it unconstitutional to belittle the Soviet Union’s role in World War II, appear to contradict existing articles, in this case the guarantee of freedom of speech. These measures were designed largely to spur turnout at a July 1 referendum on the constitutional changes, particularly by Putin’s conservative and elderly base of supporters, and were promoted heavily in state TV advertising, on social media and on billboards across Russia. By contrast, the key change allowing Putin to remain in power was given relatively little prominence.

3. What’s the hurry?

Putin’s term ends in 2024, and a constitutional change was needed if he wanted to extend his presidency further. He told Rossiya 1 in a television documentary broadcast in June that without the measure, “in about two years, instead of the regular rhythmic work on many levels of government, you’d have eyes shifting around hunting for possible successors. It’s necessary to work, not look for successors.” The vote was originally planned for April before the coronavirus pandemic forced Putin to delay it. In the meantime, a countrywide lockdown and a collapse in oil prices derailed the government’s plan to reverse a decline in real wages. They had never recovered from Russia’s 2014 crisis, which was sparked by a slump in the ruble and U.S. and European Union sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea. The renewed turmoil this year helped send Putin’s approval rating to a record low, albeit at a level that most western politicians would crave. While Russia has recorded the third-most infections globally after the U.S. and Brazil, the authorities were eager to move forward after the epidemic passed its peak in the country.

4. Where does this leave Putin’s reputation?

In his two decades in power, Putin has restored Russia’s swagger as a global power by rebuilding the military, deepening ties with China and reasserting Russian influence in the Middle East. Russia had a budget surplus in the last two years, it has little debt, its lowest inflation on record, and one of the world’s biggest foreign currency reserves. Putin’s Achilles heel may be that he never tackled corruption. A small clique of friends from his native St. Petersburg have gained vast fortunes under his rule, and opposition leader Alexey Navalny regularly publishes exposes about the lavish lifestyles of people close to power.

5. Is Putin president for life?

Putin is already the longest-serving Kremlin leader since Soviet ruler Josef Stalin. After finishing his first two terms in 2008, he installed Dmitry Medvedev as president and ran the country as prime minister for four years, during which time the constitution was amended to extend the presidential term to six years from four. Putin returned to the presidency in 2012 and was re-elected in a carefully-choreographed landslide in 2018. He had previously pledged not to change the constitution to remain as president. But after the Kremlin weighed and rejected other options for skirting the constitutional term limit, he’s doing just that. Putin could now potentially rule until he is 83, a reign that would be just over 3 1/2 decades and could rival in length that of Ivan the Terrible, who ruled from 1547 to 1584.

The Reference Shelf

• A QuickTake on how an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia led to an uneasy truce.
• A critical legal analysis of the constitutional amendments.
• A story on why Putin pressed ahead with the plebiscite amid Covid-19.
• Russia. Kremlin. Putin, a new film by state TV, shows how he has changed over the last 20 years.
• How the constitutional changes are cementing Russia’s ultraconservative ideology.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.