How Ukraine War Fuels Japan’s Island Feud With Russia

(Bloomberg) -- As it overturned precedent to follow the U.S. and Europe in imposing harsh sanctions to punish Russia for invading Ukraine, Japan said it scrambled fighter jets to intercept a helicopter -- thought to be Russian -- that entered its airspace. That fueled more sniping between Japan and Russia, which have been at odds over four small islands that lie between them since the end of World War II, preventing them from formally ending hostilities. The outbreak of war in Europe has turned rising tensions into downright antagonism, with Russia saying it would halt talks on a peace deal due to sanctions Tokyo has imposed over President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

1. What is the feud about? 

The Soviet Union, which declared war on Japan days before Emperor Hirohito announced his country’s surrender on Aug. 15, 1945, seized the islands off the northeastern coast of Hokkaido, expelled all 17,000 Japanese residents and has held the land ever since. The islands are known as the Northern Territories in Japan and the Southern Kurils in Russia. Japan’s official position is that the islands -- home to rich fishing grounds -- are an inherent part of its territory and are under illegal occupation. Russia insists that it owns the isles, which have been inhabited by its own citizens for generations.

2. Have they tried to negotiate?

Yes, many times. In 2018, President Vladimir Putin and then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed that negotiations should be based on a 1956 joint declaration that refers to the transfer of two of the four islands to Japan after the conclusion of a peace treaty. Abe -- whose late father, former Foreign Minister Shintaro Abe, also tried repeatedly to end the dispute -- expressed optimism at the time for a deal, but Russia insisted that Tokyo first acknowledge Russian sovereignty over the islands. What seemed like a scant prospect for settlement later became even more remote. The Russian parliament in 2020 backed a tougher stance on any territorial concessions, and changes to the Russian constitution also made it illegal to hand over any part of Russia. In late March, Russia said it would stop negotiations with Japan on a peace treaty after Tokyo imposed unprecedented sanctions over Putin’s assault on Ukraine. 

3. How did they get tangled up with Ukraine?

A Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs official, Hideki Uyama, compared Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the occupation of the islands. “I understand that Russia occupying the Northern Territories and the Russian military’s invasion happening in Ukraine now are both against international law,” Uyama told a parliamentary committee Feb. 28, according to the Asahi newspaper. Russia’s embassy in Tokyo responded by tweeting that the islands were legally transferred as “part of the punishment for Japan’s aggression and its alliance with Nazi Germany.” The reported brief incursion came soon after, on March 2, off Japan’s island of Hokkaido. Japan’s Ministry of Defense linked it to naval drills by Russia’s Pacific Fleet in the Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk, which it said were intended to show how Russia’s military could operate simultaneously in Europe and Asia. 

4. How do the people feel?

Few in Japan would be satisfied with two islands, while Russian public opinion is against giving away any territory. Any deal to hand over land presents risks for Putin, who has long railed against the erosion of the Soviet empire and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula back in 2014. Last year he said Russia is setting up a tax-free zone to attract investment to the islands.

5. What could happen next?

Russia’s ambassador to Tokyo has warned of countermeasures. The fishing industry in Hokkaido could effectively lose access to areas within Russia’s exclusive economic zone around the islands if the Russian side seizes more boats it considers to be fishing illegally. Russia could also step up air incursions as it did in the aftermath of Japan’s relatively mild sanctions over Crimea in 2014. U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel tweeted America’s support for Japan’s claim shortly after taking up his post this year. For the time being, the Japanese former islanders’ dream of returning to their old homes is over. “The idea that, having invaded a neighboring country in part to prevent it from entering a U.S.-led alliance, Putin would then transfer territory to a U.S. ally is absolutely unthinkable,” said James Brown, an associate professor at Temple University’s Tokyo campus who researches Japan-Russia relations.

The Reference Shelf

• A January update from the Japan Ministry of Defense on Russian armed forces in the vicinity.
• A QuickTake on Japan’s feud with China over the Senkakus (known as Diaoyus in China).
• From the archive: Bloomberg Opinion’s Leonid Bershidsky on why Putin can’t get a deal with Japan.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.