How Populist Rodrigo Duterte Keeps Shaking Up the Philippines

(Bloomberg) -- The Punisher. Dirty Harry. Donald Trump of the East. These are nicknames given to President Rodrigo Duterte, a fiery populist who has waged a deadly war on drugs in the Philippines. Since his election in 2016, he has scrambled the country’s international loyalties, shaken up big business and angered women’s groups and the Catholic Church. And that was before missteps in handling the Covid-19 pandemic led to one of the highest case rates in Southeast Asia and tens of thousands of deaths, tanking the economy as well. Yet Duterte remains popular with a wide base, meaning he still plays a role in the race to succeed him this year.

1. How’s the economy?

Duterte inherited a strong economy from his predecessor, Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, and kept growth running above 6% in his first four years as president, with jobless and poverty rates staying low. The Philippines also got its highest credit rating as tax overhauls were implemented, following on Aquino’s efforts to pursue tax evaders. Spending on infrastructure also increased. The pandemic reversed those gains, however. Two major contributors -- remittances and domestic consumption -- were gutted as businesses shut and overseas workers returned home or were idled. Gross domestic product plunged 9.6% in 2020, the largest drop since 1946, and unemployment climbed, especially in the Manila metro area, home to a third of the country’s economic activity. Growth returned in 2021, with the full-year forecast at 5%-5.5% as virus restrictions were eased, but the emergence of the omicron variant is a wildcard for the economy in 2022. 

2. How did Duterte handle the pandemic? 

Duterte used widescale lockdowns to stem the outbreak, tapping the police and military to enforce curbs on movement. Infections dropped early in 2021 but soared again with the spread of the more infectious delta variant, filling hospitals amid struggles with testing and tracing in a fragmented health system. The Philippines, which relied mostly on Chinese shots to start its vaccine drive, has lagged well behind most of its Southeast Asian neighbors in the percentage of the population inoculated.

3. Why Chinese vaccines?

It reflects the pivot to China -- and away from the U.S. -- that Duterte began soon after taking office. Chinese loans and grants to the Philippines were at $621 million in 2020, up from $1.6 million in 2016, as investments poured into telecommunications and other areas. Trading ties were also strengthened, and Chinese visitors boosted Philippine tourism pre-pandemic. Online casinos employing and targeting mostly mainland Chinese boomed then too. In 2018, Xi Jinping became the first Chinese president to visit in over a decade. The following year, Duterte said he’d ignore an international court ruling affirming his country’s territorial claims in the South China Sea to advance a joint oil exploration deal with China. As his term winds down, however, promises of big-ticket projects and billions of dollars in investments from China remain largely unfulfilled. Tensions over the South China Sea have flared again and oil exploration plans have stalled.

4. How are things with the U.S.?

Getting better after a rough patch. The two countries have been treaty allies since 1951, five years after the U.S. granted the Philippines independence. Duterte, however, chafed at the relationship, questioning the U.S. commitment and lashing out at what he perceived as U.S. hypocrisy and meddling, often over his drug war. Early on he ended joint sea patrols and threatened to expel American soldiers. He even cursed then-President Barack Obama. Duterte dialed down his verbal attacks after President Donald Trump took office in 2017, and as naval tensions with China escalated. In July Duterte retracted his termination of a Visiting Forces Agreement with the U.S., allowing the two countries to continue military exercises -- a major victory for Trump’s successor, President Joe Biden. (Duterte said later it was “just give and take” in exchange for donated U.S. coronavirus vaccines.) The U.S. will also resume projects in Philippine military bases as part of another defense pact.

5. Is there still a war on drugs?

Duterte’s drug fight, which he had promised to complete in six months, goes on despite the pandemic. It escalated “dramatically” during the lockdown in 2020, according to a Human Rights Watch report. The campaign targeted impoverished Filipinos mostly in urban areas, with the police and unidentified gunmen associated with the force committing thousands of extra-judicial killings, according to the report. The drug war has so far killed more than 6,000, according to government data, but human rights groups estimate the death toll is much higher. Judges at the International Criminal Court in The Hague in September 2021 authorized an investigation into possible crimes against humanity committed during the war on drugs, despite Duterte’s earlier withdrawal from the tribunal in protest. Duterte, in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, again criticized outside interference and said anyone who “acted beyond bounds” during the war on drugs would be held “accountable” by the Philippine justice system. The ICC then suspended its investigation while it assesses the government’s request to defer to the Philippines’ own probe.

6. How popular is he? 

His popularity ratings have been consistently high, dipping below 50% only twice amid controversies over his drug war and high prices. That’s allowed him to keep majority support in Congress, with the opposition shut out in the 2019 senatorial elections. His approval rating reached a record-high in 2020, and his government’s response to the health crisis was also received positively. But his popularity began to wane in 2021 as the pandemic dragged on. His harshest critic, Senator Leila de Lima, has been jailed since 2017 on drug charges that she calls politically motivated. He has also attacked the media, including prominent journalist Maria Ressa, who’s facing several court cases and was a co-winner of the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize for her “courageous fight for freedom of expression.”

7. So what’s Duterte’s plan?

Duterte, who is 76, is limited by the constitution to one term, which ends on June 30, 2022. He floated then dropped his candidacy for a Senate seat instead. His daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, is running for the vice presidency (which is elected separately) allied with former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the late dictator’s son and front-runner as of late 2021. Other candidates include Senator and ex-boxer Manny Pacquiao, Manila Mayor and actor Isko Moreno and Vice President Leni Robredo, who leads the opposition.

The Reference Shelf

• An in-depth report about online disinformation in the Philippines
• The ICC decision to authorize an investigation into the “situation in the Philippines.”
• The 2021 Nobel Peace Prize announcement and Maria Ressa’s speech.
• Human Rights Data Analysis Group developed a model to count drug-related killings in the Philippines.
• Bloomberg Opinion’s Matthew Brooker says Pacquiao isn’t the hero the country needs.
• A visual report on Philippine political dynasties.
• An in-depth report and a Quicktake explainer on the South China Sea dispute
• A government website set up to retrieve missing art from the Marcos collection.

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