How Covid Cash Boosts Bolsonaro Allies in Brazil Vote
How Covid Cash Boosts Bolsonaro Allies in Brazil Vote: QuickTake
(Bloomberg) -- President Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s far-right leader, isn’t on any ballots this November but is the central figure in municipal elections that many expect to be a referendum on the first half of his four-year term. His disdain for pandemic-related restrictions has helped make the country one of the world’s worst Covid-19 hotspots. Yet the fact that more businesses stayed open helped lessen the virus’s economic blow, and a robust program of cash handouts to informal workers has boosted his popularity while weakening leftist opposition parties. Most candidates on the ballot are lining up to support either the president or the mayors who defied his virus policies, many of whom are up for re-election.
1. What could the elections tell us about Brazil’s future?
Bolsonaro’s election in 2018 was part of a conservative wave that shifted the electorate to the right after more than a decade of leftist rule. The Nov. 15 vote (with possible runoffs scheduled for Nov. 29) may measure how strong that trend is two years on. Initial signals suggest that conservatives still have plenty of appeal among voters: More candidates come from the ranks of the police, the priesthood or the military than ever before.
2. How hard has Brazil been hit by Covid?
With more than 160,000 deaths, it has one of the world’s highest mortality rates, and its 5.6 million recorded cases put it third after the U.S. and India. Bolsonaro has complicated things: he belittled local leaders for their quarantine measures and promoted hydroxychloroquine, a drug unproven for treating Covid-19, while urging Brazilians to get back to work.
3. How bad is the economy?
The number of unemployed Brazilians has jumped to 14 million, up from 9 million in May, and GDP is expected to fall 5% for the year. But the country is suffering less than its Latin American neighbors, thanks in part to Bolsonaro’s $57 billion worth of cash handouts. Yet this program has left markets on edge. Investors fear a budget crisis if the government breaches a spending cap rule to make temporary pandemic benefits permanent. It has also put the president at odds with Economy Minister Paulo Guedes, who favors austerity. Public debt is close to 100% of the country’s GDP.
4. Who’s up for election?
More than 5,500 mayors and 57,000 city council members will be elected, in races covering every Brazilian region and major urban hubs like Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. It’s expected that 148 million people will participate: Voting is mandatory in Brazil, so everyone except for children and the elderly must cast a ballot.
5. What’s the field like?
There are more women and Black candidates than ever before, thanks in part to the boost in campaign funding parties receive for diversifying their rosters. Both groups have historically been under-represented in office. Women now comprise one third of the candidates while Black Brazilians represent 51% of those running, a flip from the 2016 municipal vote when 51.5% were White, versus 48% now. Still, White men stand to retain control of Brazil’s centers of power: In the 95 largest cities, where 40% of Brazil’s population is concentrated, eight out of 10 candidates for mayor are men and 70% are white.
6. How could these elections help Bolsonaro?
Bolsonaro has never polled better, with 39% of Brazilians rating his government as great or good. Many candidates are framing themselves as the president’s acolytes -- even without his blessing -- and appropriating his 2018 campaign slogan “God, country, and family.” The president, who left the political party he was elected with and is now independent, said he would not support any candidates. But encouraged by his jump in polls, he has endorsed candidates in Rio and Sao Paulo (both white men).
7. What about Brazil’s left wing?
The once-dominant Workers’ Party is in the midst of an identity crisis. At this time last year, the face of the party, ex-President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, was promising a roaring return of the left. That doesn’t seem likely to happen soon. The Workers’ Party candidates have slim chances of winning in the biggest cities. For example, in Sao Paulo, the country’s largest urban center, the party’s representative is only polling at 6%. Meanwhile other leftist parties are trying to move in with competitive candidates in some cities in the south and northeast regions of the country.
8. How does coronavirus impact the elections?
They were postponed from October to November and the campaigning period was cut in half. And the virus is the dominant issue, as many people will be pushing for more government assistance and opposing measures that close businesses. At the same time, Brazilians are politically divided, and just as many see Bolsonaro’s refusal to acknowledge the seriousness of the virus as exacerbating the crisis.
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