How Catalonia Remains a Thorn in Spanish Politics

(Bloomberg) -- It’s been two years since Catalonia’s then-government tried to stage a breakaway from Spain and riot police clamped down on an illegal independence referendum. In October, the Spanish Supreme Court handed down stiff jail sentences to some of the leaders of that effort. And on Thursday, one of the two parties behind the crisis is expected to give acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez the final backing he needs to take power for a second term. The Catalan question remains at the heart of Spain’s fractured politics, sharpening animosities and polarizing public opinion.

1. How did the Catalan issue affect November’s election result?

Catalonia was the big issue at the polls. The Spanish nationalists of Vox, who had called for a hard-line crackdown on the separatists, more than doubled their support to become the third-biggest force in parliament. The big loser was Ciudadanos, a formerly centrist party that had shifted to the right over Catalonia and found itself outflanked by Vox. Another winner was Podemos. The anti-austerity group lost seats in the November vote but immediately sealed a political pact with Sanchez as he tried to cement a left-wing coalition in the face of the far-right surge.

2. Where does that leave Sanchez?

Even with the support of Podemos, Sanchez’s Socialists were still short of an overall majority, so he was forced to turn to Esquerra Republican de Catalunya, a separatist group whose leader, Oriol Junqueras, is serving a 13-year jail term for his role in the attempt to split from Spain. Needless to say, Vox and the conservative People’s Party say Sanchez’s U-turn to negotiate with a party that wants to break up Spain amounts to a betrayal. It’s important to note that forming a government with Esquerra’s help is one thing and being able to run the country something else entirely. Sanchez has said he’ll have to seek political agreements “law by law” to put his political program with Podemos into effect.

3. How did Junqueras wind up in jail?

Key figures in the Catalan independence movement were convicted for their part in the events of 2017 when the regional government made an illegal attempt to declare independence. The televised proceedings transfixed Spain as a dozen separatist leaders, including former regional Vice-President Junqueras, faced a panel of Supreme Court judges. On Oct. 14, the court sentenced handed down sentences of between nine and 12 years to nine individuals. In a new twist, Europe’s top court has since said that Junqueras should have had legal immunity as a member of the European Parliament.

4. What was the reaction to the verdict in Catalonia?

Socialist leader Sanchez urged Catalan nationalists not to turn violent, but the verdicts sparked immediate protests across the region as well as a large counter-demonstration in Barcelona by supporters of a unified Spain. The Catalan government said the verdicts were a historic error and called on the international community to help resolve the “conflict” with Spain. Even FC Barcelona, the city’s soccer club, called for dialogue so that the leaders can be released.

5. How do Catalan local politics affect this situation?

While the jail terms handed down for Junqueras and others certainly enraged separatist voters, Esquerra takes a more gradual approach to separatism than the other main pro-independence party, Junts per Catalunya. The political calculus for Esquerra’s 13 national parliamentary deputies is that they’ll get better treatment from his Socialists than a People’s Party reliant on the support of Vox. Even so, pledging support for a Spanish premier who didn’t intervene when their leader was jailed could also come at a cost for Esquerra. Any development that brings the policies of rival separatist groups into focus -- a regional election for example -- would put pressure on the party. It could also deal a blow to Sanchez, who remains a hostage to the region’s volatile politics.

6. How is the independence movement faring?

It’s been beset by infighting for the past two years. The regional government is run by Joaquim Torra of Junts per Catalunya, a die-hard separatist. He took charge in 2018 after the former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont fled Spain and pro-independence parties won a slim majority in a regional election at the end of 2017. Notwithstanding the jail sentences, there seems little appetite within the broader movement to pursue independence immediately. In a sign of some willingness to ease tensions, Spain’s King Felipe VI braved protests to attend a prize-giving ceremony in Barcelona at which his 14-year-old daughter, Princess Leonor, made a speech in perfect Catalan.

7. What’s the way out of this mess?

The Catalan dispute has plagued Spain off and on for more than three centuries, so it’s naive to bet on easy solutions. The separatists want an independent state that would have an economy as large as Finland’s or Portugal’s. Spain is determined to hold onto a region it sees as integral to national unity and that contributes a fifth of its output. Sanchez has said he wants to explore ways to expand Catalonia’s powers without allowing an official referendum on secession. He sees dialogue as the way forward, while refusing to countenance any breakup of Spanish territory. For now, the forces of Catalan independence retain their slight advantage in the regional parliament. However, the Catalan government’s own polls show there is no majority in favor of a split, and support for independence has been trending downward in 2019.

The Reference Shelf

• Bloomberg News: Catalan separatists preparing supporters to accept Sanchez deal
• The Catalan crisis still shapes Spain as separatist trial begins, writes Bloomberg News.
• Bloomberg Opinion’s Noah Feldman says Spanish prosecutors went overboard.
• From the archives: QuickTake briefing on Catalonia.

--With assistance from Todd White.

To contact the reporter on this story: Charles Penty in Madrid at cpenty@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Andy Reinhardt, Grant Clark

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