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Britain’s Election Gamble—What You Need to Know

Britain’s Election Gamble—What You Need to Know

(Bloomberg) --

Britain is going to the polls for the third time in five years in a general election intended to break the deadlock over Brexit. The Dec. 12 vote is a huge gamble for Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Conservative Party. That’s because hard-to-predict voting patterns might not hand Johnson -- or his key rival -- an overall majority and control of Parliament. It’s also the first election held in December since 1923, which has hampered canvassing and may reduce turnout, making the outcome even more unpredictable.

1. What’s the gamble?

The next U.K. general election wasn’t scheduled until 2022, but Johnson fought for an early poll to try to win back a majority in Parliament and push through Britain’s often-delayed split from the European Union. If he wins a majority, Johnson has vowed to leave the EU by Jan. 31. If he loses, Brexit could be stalled ahead of a second referendum on the issue and Britain could see its most socialist government since the 1970s.

2. Who’s in the running?

Voters are hearing most from the two biggest parties -- the Conservatives, also known as the Tories, and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party -- during the campaign. Other parties include Jo Swinson’s Liberal Democrats, who are fighting to remain in the EU, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party and the pro-environment Green party. Potential spoilers include smaller parties linked to countries within the U.K. that often win seats there: the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru in Wales and four groups in Northern Ireland. Studies show that tribal party loyalty has dissipated as voters define themselves more by their views on Brexit.

3. What do the polls say?

As the campaign headed into its final week in early December, national surveys had the Conservatives averaging around 10 points ahead of Labour, but polls are notoriously inaccurate as voter affiliations become more volatile and shifting technology renders old sampling techniques less effective. Local voting intentions also may alter the results beyond what can be assessed by pollsters, since each constituency elects its own member of Parliament. (Here is a poll tracker.)

4. What are the main issues in the election?

While Brexit may be the reason for the election and a dominant theme, voters have been keen to discuss other issues closer to home. The state-run National Health Service is a major source of debate, with education and the environment also on the agenda. Housing, poverty and tax rates also have featured. Increasingly, the dominant issue in the campaign has become the personalities and promises of the two party leaders themselves. Corbyn has been unable to throw off accusations of poor leadership over ridding his party of anti-Semitism, while Johnson has been laughed at by voters over whether he can be trusted.

5. How are elections won in the U.K.?

There are 650 individual seats at stake in the House of Commons, the lower chamber of Parliament. Under Britain’s “first-past-the-post” voting system, the candidate who gets the most votes (a plurality) in each constituency wins the seat, regardless of whether he or she secures a majority. Then, if one party wins a majority of seats -- 326 or more -- it gets to form the government. The bigger the margin, the more opportunity a party has to effect its agenda. Johnson is hoping for a sizable margin to more easily force through his Brexit deal, alongside his other domestic priorities such as the NHS and caring for an aging population.

6. What happens if no party wins outright?

Britain’s political system mostly used to deliver up majorities for the Conservatives or Labour, but that’s not always the case anymore due to the rise of issue-related parties such as the Greens and the Brexit Party that are siphoning off support. If no party wins an outright majority of seats in the election, the result is a hung Parliament. When this happens, parties enter into negotiations to form coalitions or to support each other in looser partnerships. As the head of the government in power before the election, Johnson would get the first crack at forming a new government through a coalition. Another possibility is for the party with the most seats to try to rule as a minority government. Doing so requires forging ad hoc agreements with smaller parties, and it risks repeated defeats and another general election.

7. What is ‘tactical voting’ and why is it important?

With two major parties and lots of little ones, it can be difficult for special-interest voters to obtain representation. (In the 2015 election, for instance, the UKIP party won 13% of the overall vote but secured just one seat in the Commons.) Smaller parties can try to maximize their opportunity by carving up constituencies with their rivals -- such as the pact struck among the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and Greens -- and urging voters to vote tactically instead of according to traditional party affiliations. Such “tactical voting” happens more frequently in areas where the opposition vote is fragmented. It could alter the election results nationally if neither major party wins a majority thanks to deals among smaller parties to encourage two-way battles in key constituencies.

8. What’s the impact of holding the vote in December?

Conventional wisdom suggests that campaigns should be held in the spring or fall to allow canvassers the maximum daylight to speak to potential voters in the evening. The most unpredictable -- and potentially critical -- variable of a winter contest is the weather: Rain, floods, fog and even possible snow could keep some voters at home, handing greater influence to party faithful and other die-hards. The December date could also spur higher-than-usual use of mail-in ballots, which will be competing with millions of Christmas cards and gifts working their way through the clogged postal system ahead of the holidays. And the participation of university-age voters heading home for winter break could be suppressed, depending on where they’re registered.

9. When are the results known?

Counting begins immediately in each district and results trickle out overnight. Television channels including the BBC, the national broadcaster, have commissioned exit polls to run just after 10 p.m. on election day, and by early morning it usually becomes clear which party is likely to have won the contest even if all the results are not in.

The Reference Shelf

--With assistance from Grant Clark.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Andy Reinhardt, Flavia Krause-Jackson

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.