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What’s Next in Hong Kong’s Protests After the Coronavirus Lull?

What’s Next in Hong Kong’s Protests After the Coronavirus Lull?

(Bloomberg) -- The coronavirus outbreak put a damper on months of protests in Hong Kong, but political tension over China’s tightening grip on the city looks set to intensify rather than dissipate ahead of local elections in September. The city’s leader withdrew an extradition bill that sparked last year’s turmoil, but is under new pressure from China’s point men to take up equally contentious national security legislation, while the pro-democracy camp has been hit with arrests and verbal barbs. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has long warned that challenges to China’s rule won’t be tolerated, says “restoring order is Hong Kong’s most important task.”

1. Isn’t Hong Kong part of China?

Yes, but officially it’s a “special administrative region.” The city of 7.5 million people was an outpost of the British Empire for 156 years, during which time it developed into a global business hub. In a 1984 joint declaration, the British agreed to give it back in 1997 and China promised to allow a “high degree of autonomy” for 50 years -- until 2047 -- including guarantees of free speech and a free press, capitalist markets and English common law under a “one country, two systems” arrangement.

2. What started the protests?

What’s Next in Hong Kong’s Protests After the Coronavirus Lull?

The extradition bill, introduced in February 2019, was suspended in June but Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam waited another two months to formally withdraw it. During that time, the list of grievances grew along with calls for Lam’s resignation. Many protesters chant the motto: “Five demands, not one less!” Those are:

  • Withdrawal of the extradition bill (done)
  • An independent inquiry into police conduct and allegations of excessive use of force
  • Amnesty for arrested protesters, hundreds of whom are facing as many as 10 years in prison on a colonial-era rioting charge
  • A halt to characterizing the protests as riots
  • Restart stalled electoral reforms, including direct elections for the city’s leader.

3. Are they still going on?

The last major protest was Jan. 1, when about 400 people were arrested, pushing the total above 7,000. Things quieted down ahead of the Lunar New Year, and then came the coronavirus outbreak, which has led to most people hunkering down at home. Since then there have been a handful of small-scale protests, but nothing on the scale of last year’s marches or melees.

4. So it’s quiet?

Not exactly. More than a dozen prominent pro-democracy figures were arrested April 18 on what police said was suspicion of organizing and participating in unauthorized assemblies in 2019. Among them were barrister Martin Lee, a former lawmaker who helped draft the city’s Basic Law before the handover and founded the main opposition Democratic Party, and media tycoon Jimmy Lai, whose outlets are sympathetic to the protesters. Some opposition figures fear such moves could spur more radical protesters to renewed violence, which China then could use to justify canceling the Legislative Council election or other crackdowns.

5. What’s China done?

After pro-democracy candidates swept to victory in district council elections in November, Xi ousted China’s liaison in the city and replaced him with Luo Huining, a Communist Party stalwart with a reputation as an enforcer. Luo has called the pro-democracy movement a threat to national security. Xi also appointed Xia Baolong, who oversaw a crackdown on churches when he was the Communist Party chief of China’s Zhejiang province, as director of the Hong Kong & Macau Affairs Office. The two agencies have blasted the opposition over months of delay tactics in a legislative committee, suggesting lawmakers could be violating their oath of office -- a potential precursor to disqualification. More broadly, they’ve alarmed many -- including the city’s bar association -- by arguing they have a right to supervise and express views on local politics, even though the Basic Law explicitly bars interference from any department of the central government.

6. What is China’s position?

Xi has consistently backed Lam, while bemoaning “radical violent crimes” that “have seriously trampled on the rule of law and social order, seriously undermined Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability, and seriously challenged” the one country, two systems principle. Chinese officials and media have called protesters terrorists and compared them to Islamic State. They also have made charges of foreign interference, describing the U.S. as a “black hand” behind the protests -- a claim the State Department has dismissed as “ridiculous.”

7. What does Hong Kong’s government say?

“Violence is destroying Hong Kong,” Lam said last year when she invoked an emergency law to ban face masks -- while insisting there was no state of emergency. (The Court of Appeal in April declared the ban valid.) She has accepted blame for the unrest, but rejected calls to resign. Lam also has ruled out a blanket amnesty -- “you have to take the consequences after breaking the law” -- and says complaints about police conduct should be handled by an existing commission (United Nations reports have questioned its investigative powers and independence, and a panel of international advisers withdrew in December, citing similar concerns). In an apparent allusion to China’s control, Lam has said “different constraints and circumstances” prevented her from addressing “all the grievances of people in society.”

8. Could it get worse?

That depends on China. Troops from its People’s Liberation Army have been in the city since the 1997 handover, but have played a minimal role. For some people, the greatest fear is of a crackdown mirroring the deadly one three decades ago on mostly student protesters in Tiananmen Square. Another worry concerns a withdrawal by the U.S. of the special status under which it agreed to treat Hong Kong as distinct from China for trade and economic matters. To the dismay of China’s leaders, President Donald Trump signed a bill into law expressing U.S. support for the protesters. The U.S. condemned the April arrests and politicians including Senator Marco Rubio have continued to push for a harder line on China.

9. Have the protests affected business?

Yes, and the coronavirus outbreak is making it even worse. The economy was already under pressure from the U.S.-China trade war, and the government is forecasting the first annual recession in a decade. Tourists are staying away in droves. Canceled events include a major airline conference, the WTA Hong Kong Tennis Open, music festivals, fireworks, parades, a motor race and a one-month run of “Matilda The Musical.” The epidemic has led to more cancellations, including the annual Art Basel Hong Kong show. In April Fitch Ratings downgraded Hong Kong as an issuer of long-term, foreign currency debt in part because the city’s “deep-rooted socio-political cleavages remain unresolved.”

What’s Next in Hong Kong’s Protests After the Coronavirus Lull?

10. Have protests worked before?

Yes, but less so lately. In 2003 demonstrations blocked a proposed national security law and contributed to the resignation of then-Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa. Nine years later, high school students and parents’ and teachers’ groups thwarted the Hong Kong government’s attempt to introduce a course lauding the Communist Party and criticizing democracy. But the pro-democracy movement fractured after the government successfully faced down student-led demonstrators who occupied city streets for 79 days in 2014 to demand more democracy. Since then, China has barred some activists from seeking elected office, prosecuted protest leaders and banned a pro-independence political party. In 2020 the new chief liaison called for the national security law to be passed urgently.

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