(Bloomberg) -- The longest war in American history has gone on for more than 19 years. The U.S. and its NATO-led allies announced the official conclusion of their combat mission in Afghanistan in 2014. With the country remaining in violent turmoil, plans for the exit of the coalition have been repeatedly put off. When he was U.S. president, Donald Trump agreed to a complete withdrawal by May 1 in a deal with the Taliban, the Islamic fundamentalists who once ruled the country and have reclaimed significant patches of it. Now it’s up to his successor, Joe Biden, whether to finally get out.
In a letter to Afghan leaders, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. may stick to the May 1 schedule for the departure of its forces, who make up a quarter of the remaining 10,000 foreign troops in Afghanistan. Blinken leaned on Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to accelerate peace talks with the Taliban that were part of Trump’s agreement with the group. The negotiations, held in Qatar, haven’t made much headway, after the two sides took months to agree even on the basic outline of the talks. Meanwhile, since the discussions started in September, violence — including targeted killings of journalists, civil society members and politicians — has continued, worsening in the capital, Kabul. Despite the U.S. having spent an estimated $900 billion on the Afghan conflict, the Taliban are at their strongest since being ousted from power. The group controls or contests more than half the country. The Afghan military, which receives training and advice from the U.S. and its allies, has been hampered by insufficient air power and heavy combat losses and desertions.
In 1989, the Soviet military pulled out of Afghanistan, after a decade-long occupation that had made the country a front line in the Cold War. The U.S., which actively supported the Soviets’ opponents, including radical Islamist factions, also disengaged. Bloody chaos followed until the Taliban seized Kabul from the feuding warlords who had all but leveled it. The Taliban imposed stern theocratic rule and gave the terrorist group al-Qaeda a base. In 2001, after the Taliban refused to extradite al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden following his group’s Sept. 11 attacks on the U.S., the U.S. invaded Afghanistan. When bin Laden and the Taliban leadership fled, the U.S. mission morphed into a nation-building undertaking — but with limited military resources, as the U.S. focused on a separate war in Iraq. Eventually, more than 50 nations joined the coalition led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. In 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama ordered a “surge” in forces that reached a peak of 140,000 in 2011. Military commanders reported progress on the ground, but war fatigue at home, especially after the killing of bin Laden in Pakistan, led Obama to start winding down the American troop presence. Doubts that the Afghan military could stand on its own prompted him to leave the last of them in place when he turned the presidency over to Trump in January 2017. Within a year, Trump had deployed an additional 3,500 U.S. troops to the country at the Pentagon’s urging. In 2020, frustrated by the Taliban’s tenacity, he struck his deal with the group and began another drawdown.
There’s widespread agreement in the U.S. that the war against the Taliban can’t be won militarily. There are divisions, however, over how fast and under what conditions the U.S. should exit the fight. Some analysts say it’s important to first secure a political agreement between the Afghan government and the Taliban in order to reduce the chances of the latter sweeping to power and reinstituting strict Islamic law. For his part, Biden has consistently argued that U.S. policy in Afghanistan should be focused on protecting the U.S. from terrorism. In its agreement with the U.S., the Taliban pledged that it would not allow al-Qaeda or other groups to use the country to threaten the security of the U.S. or its allies. Skeptics argue that such an assurance from the Taliban is meaningless.
The Reference Shelf
- Quarterly reports by the U.S. Special Inspector for Afghanistan Reconstruction include a section on security.
- A U.S. Congressional Research Service report on Afghanistan reviews issues for U.S. policy; another looks specifically at a drawdown of forces.
- The International Crisis Group analyzes the choices for Biden’s government.
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