About That Wall Trump Said Mexico Would Be Paying For: QuickTake

(Bloomberg) -- From the very start of his campaign for the U.S. presidency, Donald Trump has passionately promoted construction of a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico -- and insisted that Mexico would pay for it. He remains determined to get something built, even if it’s not as vast as he once envisaged. Ever since Mexico refused to foot the bill, the wall’s funding has been ensnared in budget negotiations with the U.S. Congress that even forced a partial government shutdown.

1. Why a wall?

Trump, in his many public statements on immigration and border security, has said an "impenetrable" wall would "stop dangerous drugs and criminals from pouring into our country." More recently, Trump and his aides have talked up the notion that a wall might stop terrorists from entering the U.S.

2. What might the wall look like?

In his presidential campaign, Trump called for about 1,000 miles (1,609 kilometers) of concrete wall, acknowledging that natural barriers covered much of the rest of the approximately 2,000-mile-long border. At the Republican Party’s 2016 national convention, at which he became its presidential nominee, the party adopted a platform stating "the border wall must cover the entirety of the southern border." A Trump administration proposal early in 2018 called for a more modest 722-mile mix of wall and fencing, mostly updating what’s been in place for decades, while relying on drones and other methods to secure the rest. More recently Trump has said he would build a barrier out of steel rather than concrete, proposing a row of "artistically designed steel slats."

3. What’s been done so far?

Trump has insisted on Twitter and in other public comments that "tremendous amounts of wall have already been built" in California and elsewhere. Fact-checkers point out that while some existing fence is being renovated, it’s not the new concrete wall that Trump had promised. What has been built is a set of eight wall prototypes in a desert outside San Diego, California -- four of them primarily concrete, two made mostly of metal and two others being hybrid designs of concrete, metal bars and steel plating. The mock-ups were tested for their ability to repel attempts to climb over, smash through or tunnel underneath. U.S. Customs and Border Protection has said no single winner will be selected; rather, each prototype will "inform future border wall design standards in some capacity" -- once there’s money.

About That Wall Trump Said Mexico Would Be Paying For: QuickTake

4. How much would a wall cost?

Estimates range from $8 billion to $67 billion or more, depending on who’s doing the estimating, and the number of miles of wall that would be built. Trump’s fellow Republicans in Congress have said they expect a wall to cost from $12 billion to $15 billion, based on the cost to rebuild existing border fencing covering a third of that distance, though those projections don’t include the cost of buying non-government land. Based on Trump’s 2017 budget request for $2.6 billion to plan, design and build 75 miles of wall, one Senate Democrat estimated the per-mile cost would be about $37 million, or nearly $67 billion for the entire 2,000-mile border. A July 2018 report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office warned that the wall might "cost more than projected, take longer than planned or not fully perform as expected.”

5. How much money has Congress pledged?

Almost $1.6 billion so far, though not for a new wall per se. That funding includes $641 million for 33 miles of “pedestrian fencing” in the Rio Grande Valley in South Texas, $251 million for 14 miles of replacements for barriers in San Diego, plus money for enforcement. As part of negotiations over fiscal 2019 spending, Trump asked for at least $5 billion; Democrats offered $1.375 billion for new and replacement fencing.

6. What do Democrats propose?

Generally speaking, Democrats say a better way to stop criminals and drugs from crossing into the U.S. would be to increase the number of border agents, improve technological surveillance and build barriers only where most needed. A wall like Trump proposes would be "immoral, ineffective and expensive," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, has said.

7. Will Mexico really pay for the wall?

Former Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto and current President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrado have both emphatically refused to fund the border wall. Trump has suggested that the U.S. can recoup wall expenses from Mexico via alternative methods, including by cutting its trade surplus with the U.S. through a renegotiated North American Free Trade Agreement. He’s also floated the idea of assessing a tax on the money that immigrants living in the U.S. send to their relatives in Mexico. Mexicans sent $28.7 billion in these so-called remittances in 2017, according to Banco de Mexico.

8. How much wall exists already?

Barriers span 653 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border, mostly along the western half. Much of the southern borders of California, Arizona and New Mexico have existing barriers, ranging from 18-foot-tall iron fencing and corrugated metal to makeshift vehicle barriers and barbed wire. Of the remaining thousand-plus miles of border land, two-thirds is private or state-owned, much of it in Texas. The Trump administration could seek to use eminent domain to seize land needed for a border barrier, as well as support roads and other infrastructure, though it would likely face legal challenges that could delay construction for years.

9. Would a wall stop drugs or migrants?

Some experts doubt that a physical wall would do much to reduce illegal drugs pouring into the country because they come mostly through established ports of entry. As part of a set of tools to combat illegal immigration, however, physical barriers could help. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Trump’s plan, saying a fence built along Israel’s border with Egypt has been a "great success" in keeping out migrants, mainly from African nations.

10. How about criminals or terrorists?

The Trump administration has said the wall is needed because the number of people on terror watch lists encountered at the southern border has increased during the past two years. Skeptics point to a State Department report issued in September 2018 that says there’s no credible evidence of terrorists using Mexico as base to send operatives into the U.S. The report said that while the southern border remains vulnerable to potential terrorist transit, “terrorist groups likely seek other means of trying to enter the United States.”

The Reference Shelf

  • The Washington Post’s interactive look at the U.S.-Mexico border.
  • Trump’s wall will be a potent issue in the 2020 presidential campaign.
  • The U.S. Government Accountability Office’s report.
  • A Bloomberg View editorial said the GAO report shows Trump’s wall idea is "a boondoggle."

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