How Trump Wants to Build a New Iran Nuclear Deal: QuickTake Q&A
How Trump Wants to Build a New Iran Nuclear Deal: QuickTake Q&A
(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump has been complaining about the 2015 Iran nuclear deal since before he became the U.S. president. As a candidate, he promised to upend the agreement. Now, Trump has warned that he will scrap the accord and reimpose U.S. sanctions eased under it unless European allies “join with the United States in fixing significant flaws in the deal.”
1. What’s the regulatory process?
Iran negotiated the 2015 agreement -- providing for curbs on its nuclear program in return for relief from many of the sanctions weighing on its economy -- with China, France, Russia, Germany, the U.K. and the U.S. As part of a law passed by the U.S. Congress, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, Trump has to waive sanctions on Iran’s banks and oil sales every 120 days. Warning that he will refuse to do so again unless U.S. concerns are addressed, Trump vowed in a statement on Jan. 12: “This is a last chance.”
2. So what’s Trump’s demanding?
Trump has said steps must be taken to stop Iran’s continued development of its ballistic missile program and its support for terrorism. Those issues aren’t part of the nuclear agreement, and Iran remains under separate U.S. sanctions related to them. On the nuclear accord, Trump also has said he wants Congress to craft a bill requiring that “Iran allow immediate inspections at all sites” and ensuring Iran is prevented from having a nuclear weapon “forever.” Some of the deal’s constraints are due to expire over time.
3. But has Iran stuck to the accord?
Assessments by the International Atomic Energy Agency since the deal took effect have found Iran meeting its obligations. In October 2016, Iran slightly surpassed a limit on its stockpiles of heavy water, which is used in medical imaging and can also fuel reactors that produce plutonium, a weapons material. But it addressed that within weeks by shipping the surplus to Oman.
4. What are the risks of Trump’s approach?
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the nuclear deal “will fall apart” if the U.S. pulls out. “This agreement cannot be implemented if one of the participants unilaterally steps out of it,” Lavrov told reporters at the United Nations. Iran’s nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi reportedly said his country may stop cooperating with IAEA inspectors. Iran has said it would resume enrichment of uranium to 20 percent -- banned under the deal because such material can rapidly be further enriched to weapons-grade material -- if another party breaches the agreement.
5. How will Congress respond?
Republicans, who control both houses of Congress, say they are working on draft legislation that would amend the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act to meet Trump’s demands. Requiring the president to certify the deal less frequently may be one easy fix. But no action has yet been taken.
6. What are Trump’s plans for the Europeans?
France, Germany and the U.K. have urged Trump not to scrap the deal. However, the Trump administration has created working groups with the three countries to look at what to address and how to engage Tehran on possible fixes. They’ve indicated they may find common cause with the U.S. on moves to curb Iran’s ballistic missile program.
“It’s important we do that in parallel and don’t vitiate the fundamentals of the Iran nuclear deal, and we’re sure we can do that,” U.K. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said.
7. What’s the issue with Iran’s missile program?
Iran has been developing a homegrown missile program since finding it was unequipped to respond to missile attacks from Iraq in the 1980s war between the neighbors. A UN resolution from 2010 stated emphatically that “Iran shall not undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.” But in the hard-fought negotiations over the the nuclear accord, Iran won acquiescence from the U.S. for a UN resolution that simply “called upon” it to refrain from work on such missiles for as long as eight years. Iran says its missile program is essential for its defense and can’t be for nuclear weapons because it has none and no intention to build any.
8. What’s the issue with the deal’s duration?
In the agreement, Iran pledged that it would refine uranium to no more than 3.7 percent enrichment, the level needed to fuel nuclear power plants, and pledged to limit its enriched-uranium stockpile to 300 kilograms, 3 percent of its stores before the deal was reached. U.S. officials estimated that the agreement extended the time it would take Iran to produce enough fissile material for a bomb from a few months to a year. The trouble is, those terms last 15 years, or until 2030. At that point, in the absence of another arrangement, Iran would be free to return to refining uranium to a higher level, and to building greater stockpiles.
9. Does Iran sponsor terrorism?
Iran has been on the U.S. government’s list of state sponsors of terrorism since 1984. Among the groups it supports that the U.S. considers terrorist are the Palestinian group Hamas, the Lebanese organization Hezbollah and one of the Shiite militias in Iraq. Iran considers these groups fighters in righteous causes. The U.S. military also has said it’s maintaining a presence in Syria partly to constrain Iranian influence.
10. How has Iran responded to U.S. pressure so far?
Responding to Trump’s demands, Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said in a message on Twitter that the nuclear deal is “not renegotiable.” The nuclear agreement was “a solid multilateral agreement” that Trump was “maliciously violating.” Nevertheless, Iran is in a bind. It sees U.S. actions, such as a broadening of non-nuclear sanctions in August, as an infringement of the agreement, and hard-liners in Iran have pushed for a strong Iranian response. Yet delivering one risks allowing the U.S. to blame Iran for any subsequent collapse of the accord. Iran insists it won’t fall into a “trap” set by the Trump administration by being the first to walk away.
The Reference Shelf
--With assistance from Ladane Nasseri and Golnar Motevalli
To contact the reporters on this story: Kambiz Foroohar in New York at kforoohar@bloomberg.net, Nick Wadhams in Washington at nwadhams@bloomberg.net, Steven T. Dennis in Washington at sdennis17@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Bill Faries at wfaries@bloomberg.net, Lisa Beyer, Larry Liebert
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