Yemen’s Fault Lines

(Bloomberg) -- Years ago, Yemen was held up by the U.S. as a model partner in the battle against Islamic militants. Today, it’s engulfed in a civil war and the target of a bombing campaign by a U.S.-supported coalition of Arab states led by Saudi Arabia. The journey between those points is the story of a country torn both by internal divisions and the interests of outside parties. Caught in a broader struggle between rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, it’s become the site of what the United Nations calls the world’s biggest humanitarian disaster..The Situation.In September, Saudi Arabia began looking for a way out; months earlier, its ally the United Arab Emirates signaled that it was withdrawing from the conflict. The de facto Saudi ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, indicated that he was open to all political initiatives to end the war, a position welcomed by the Houthi rebels who in 2014 dislodged the internationally recognized government of President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. The rebels remain in control of the capital, Sana’a, and other parts of northern Yemen, where they launch attacks on Saudi positions across the border. On a second front, southern secessionists have been battling forces loyal to Hadi’s government. Human rights groups have documented repeated cases of coalition bombings of civilian targets, including schools and hospitals. It’s been estimated that more than 91,000 people have died in the war and about 2 million, out of a population of 28 million, have been displaced from their homes. The war has increased the threat of widespread famine in what was already the poorest country in the Middle East. .The Background.The conflict has its roots in complaints by the rebels of marginalization of their community, followers of the prominent Houthi family. Houthis are members of the Zaidi branch of Shiite Islam to which 42% of Yemen’s population belongs. In 1904, the Ottoman and British empires established a frontier separating their spheres of influence in Yemen’s north and south, respectively. The north gained independence in 1918 with Zaidi imams, long the local rulers, serving as kings until a republican revolution in 1962. South Yemen became a state in 1967. The country was unified in 1990. The Houthis fought unsuccessful rebellions from 2004 to 2010. An Arab Spring revolt forced the country’s dictator, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to step down in 2012 after two decades in power. Under a U.S.- and Saudi-backed transition accord, Hadi replaced him, and UN-supported talks set the stage for a constitutional convention and new elections. The Houthis, however, rejected a federation plan that arose from those discussions. Yemen had no tradition of Shiite-Sunni sectarianism, but outside powers chose sides along those lines, with Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia supporting the uprooted Hadi, a Sunni, and Shiite-majority Iran aiding the Houthis. Yemen isn’t a major oil producer but its location at the Bab el-Mandeb, a chokepoint in international shipping, makes it important for the global energy trade..The Argument.The Saudi-led coalition originally said its intervention was aimed at compelling the Houthis to return to the political discussions they earlier abandoned. The Saudis also justify military action as a response to aggression by Iran, which they paint as the Houthis’ master. Independent observers say that’s an exaggeration — that the Houthis receive aid from Iran but don’t dance to its tune. If the Arab intervention was meant to bring stability to Yemen, it’s had the opposite effect. The Houthis have only grown closer to Iran as the war has escalated. In addition, since the fighting began, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, a branch of the original terrorist group, and the Islamic State have expanded in Yemen. U.S. officials say an intensified bombing campaign in the country has disrupted jihadist operations there while also noting that the extremists continue to exploit the disarray and remain threatening..The Reference Shelf. An International Crisis Group paper “The Huthis: From Saada to Sanaa.” A Bloomberg QuickTake on Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi Crown Prince seen as the driving force behind the intervention in Yemen. A Congressional Research Service report “Yemen: Civil War and Regional Intervention.” A Counter Extremism Project report on al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Gregory D. Johnsen’s book “The Last Refuge: Yemen, al-Qaeda and America’s War in Arabia.”.To contact the editor responsible for this QuickTake: Lisa Beyer at lbeyer3@bloomberg.net.©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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Yemen’s Fault Lines

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