Classic Porsche, Rolls-Royce, and Ferrari Models Are Losing Steam
A Hagerty report illuminates 10 surprising vintage cars that have nowhere to go but down in the collector market.
(Bloomberg) -- As anyone who follows the collector car market has noticed, it’s cars from the 1970s, ’80s, and ’90s that are white-hot in their popularity. For that matter, anyone following vintage cars on social media has probably noticed it, too.
Cursory glances through Bring a Trailer auctions and the value ratings on Rally Rd. show double-digit percentage jumps and thousands of dollars’ worth of pricing spikes on things such as 1990s-era Toyota Supras and the Ford Mustang 7-Up Edition. According to the most recent update to the Hagerty Price Guide, the bible for those who track collectable cars, 24% of cars from the 1970s experienced double-digit growth since January 2018, and 38% of cars from the 1980s increased in price by a significant amount. Together, the two decades show the most growth of any collectable era.
But the rest of the market is bleaker. Values of cars from the 1940s, ’50s, and ’60s have flatlined, with 82% of all vehicles in the pricing guide showing little to no real or expected value growth during the same time frame.
That means iconic vehicles such as Mercedes SLs and Chevrolet Corvettes aren’t expected to gain real value anytime soon—and according to the latest Hagerty Vehicle Rating, even the stunning Porsche 911 Turbo and the hipster-cool Porsche 924 have already had their day in the sun.
“These are notable as examples of vehicles that saw a big increase in values in 2014 and 2015 and then had a later drift down in values,” Hagerty’s Jonathan Klinger says, citing the Porsche 930 as well. “All are examples of good cars—some better than others—but with mature markets,” meaning that neither many new buyers nor new sellers are entering the market.
To get to these conclusions, Hagerty uses a proprietary algorithm called the Hagerty Value Rating (HVR) that evaluates the value of a car according to insurance quote activity, the number of new policies purchased, sales data, auction activity, and other metrics. Then it ranks each one, compared to the overall collector market. Results are based on a 100-point scale. A car that matches the overall trend of the collector market will score 50. Those that are trending better than market values will score higher. Those performing worse than market value will score lower.
The models listed in this piece are those with some of the lowest scores of any for sale today, performing well below the market average. This is for a number of reasons:
- Pop Culture Trends: The adage, “You can’t sell an old man’s car to a young man” is true for a reason. Buyers tend to get vintage cars they lusted after as kids—so Volkswagen Golfs and Buick GSXs are popular again, 30 or 40 years on. Conversely, the 1968 Lincoln Continental your dad kept parked in the garage for years may not be as appealing.
- Pricing: There’s generally greater interest and potential growth in the value of more affordable cars. For instance, the median price on this “Losing Steam” list ($35,000) is more than double that of the vehicles with the best proportionate growth rates ($15,000). These have already reached their peak prices, and there’s nowhere to go but down.
- Lackluster Performance: Yes, this applies, especially to the Porsche 911 Turbo and the Ferrari 308 noted below. Both look fast, cool, and sexy, but they can easily be beaten on the road by any modern Lexus or Audi.
That’s not to say any of these are “bad” cars—that’s between you, your banker, and your refined level of taste—it just means they aren’t expected to gain significant value in the relatively near future and may even lose some value on their way off what may have been a trendy bubble.
“We’re not disparaging the vehicles on this list,” Hagerty’s Brandan Gillogly wrote in the report. “Just know that if you own one you plan on selling, it may take a bit more time and effort [to sell the car]. If you’re planning on buying a car that keeps making this list, it might mean the price is about to head down.”
HVR Score: 22
This was the replacement for the cute Porsche 914, both entry-level models that, like the 912, ended up outselling their big brother, the Porsche 911. The two-door coupe had only four cylinders and was originally developed by Porsche to be sold as a Volkswagen, but VW ultimately backed out. So yes, you could say it was sort of a car that was not “pure” Porsche—that is why it’s on this list. But it was structurally and electronically sound, lightweight, and (after 1980) turbocharged for more power.
HVR Score: 20
The six-cylinder coupe was groundbreaking for its all-aluminum monocoque body and well-balanced performance. Less-known and less-loved than its exotic counterparts, it earned respect for being a drivable, reliable sports car—a true rarity at the time, although the car itself is not considered rare. In fact, since they were so drivable, the many still around have suffered the kind of abuse that goes with all those miles and are unlikely to jump tremendously in value. They are also largely owned by older enthusiasts who can afford their high resale values ($111,000 for one in top condition), leaving only a small contingent of thirtysomething buyers who recognize them from video games and 1990s pop culture.
HVR Score: 19
Along with the 1963-71 Mercedes-Benz 230SL (aka the Pagoda) and 1967-71 Mercedes-Benz 280SE—both also rating low on this list (HVR scores of 10 and 16, respectively)—these are the two-door Mercedes coupes and convertibles that came out just before the cool ones currently in vogue: the slender, square Mercedes-Benz SLs from the late 1980s that look straight out of a Ralph Lauren ad. When the 190SLs were made, they were at the forefront of engineering, with such pioneering developments as futuristic fuel injection and redesigned carburetors to make the car run more efficiently. But there were so many made (more than 20,000 of the Pagoda alone) because they were meant for the more affordable end of the Mercedes spectrum, that they aren’t coveted by car buffs and collectors as some of their rarer or race-worthy siblings are.
HVR Score: 19
The two-door coupe was designed by the iconic design house Pininfarina with a mid-engine V8 and fiberglass body in the earlier models. (Ferrari switched to a completely steel body after the first 712 were made.) Among the Ferrari family, these are the most affordable, easiest to maintain, and easiest to drive. These prancing stallions are also considered “entry-level” in the Italian exotics set—that’s why they’re not as desirable as other, more special Ferraris. They’re also susceptible to rust issues, with that steel body, and quickly become expensive to fix, if compromised. More than 12,000 were produced in total.
HVR Score: 18
It seems nuts to imagine a Rolls-Royce on a “cars losing steam” list, but the Silver Shadow—lighter, faster, more affordable, and more common than earlier models (nearly 17,000 were made)—never carried the cachet of its Silver Cloud predecessor or later models. It also lacked the mechanical soundness of typical Rolls-Royce cars, requiring such frequent and costly repairs, especially on the complicated brake system and Citroen-designed rear suspension, that many became “roller” cars, aka non-running parts cars. These days, a Silver Shadow in “good” condition averages a value of just $8,700. As the saying goes: “There’s nothing so expensive as a cheap Rolls-Royce.” The sentiment certainly fits here.
HVR Score: 17
Some of the reasons these ’Vettes makes this list have to do with price, much like the Porsche 911 Turbos: Any potential new buyers of them who are young are probably unable to afford them. And established enthusiasts who want to actually drive their muscle cars on the road often avoid the rare, high-dollar versions for obvious reasons—that’s an expensive investment to be whipping around corners down old country roads. Instead, they opt for lesser “twins” such as kit cars or “original” Corvettes that have been modified so much, so often—and often, so poorly—they’re worth much more emotionally than they fetch in cold hard cash.
HVR Score: 17
This is a granddaddy of a car—an icon of 80 years that has seen real ups and downs in its long history. The MK III, an 18-foot metal harmonica, comes filled with an eight-cylinder engine and 365 horsepower. It weighs more than 5,000 pounds, which, for a coupe, is considerable. Nearly 30,000 were made, so it’s no rare bird, which has means you can get one when you want one and their values have stayed flat for years. An example in “fair” condition can be had for as little as $5,500. Does it look a little cheesy, like an out-of-his-prime Mafia don? Yes. For the truly cool Lincoln Continental, go for the one made from 1961-69—a V8 with clean slab sides and razor-sharp styling that was originally designed as a Ford Thunderbird.
HVR Score: 14
According to Hagerty, the 1976–89 Porsche 911 Carrera (Turbo 930) made the list this year, as did that 1955–63 Mercedes-Benz 190SL, for much the same reason: Potential buyers, many of whom are younger and newer to the collector car scene, are being priced out of the market. There are two groups of Porsche 930 Turbos here, and the 3.3-liter ones made in later years are those losing steam. For early 3.0-liter Turbos in the best condition, prices have reached astronomical amounts, hovering around $400,000 for customized paint-to-sample versions with all the factory options and upgrades. “The 3.0-liter Turbo is seen as a bit more pure and raw,” Klinger says. “Serious Porsche collectors tend to appreciate it more.” That means they cost a lot more and will likely continue. The later models mentioned in this category will probably stagnate and even drop in value for the foreseeable future.
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