Will No-Confidence Vote Write Brexit’s Next Chapter? 

(Bloomberg) --

The nation that gave the world parliamentary democracy is poised to test the system’s safety valve: A vote to oust the government from office. With Britain due to leave the European Union on Oct. 31, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson vowing to go through with it whether or not a deal is in place to ease the impact, his opponents’ ultimate weapon is a no-confidence vote in the House of Commons. Such votes determine whether the current government still commands support from a majority of lawmakers.

1. Will there be a no-confidence vote?

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition Labour Party, signaled he will call one when Parliament returns in September. A successful no-confidence vote could trigger a general election. Alternatively, the Labour party could try to form a government with support from smaller parties, and there’s even speculation that a cross-party national unity government -- including rebels from the ruling Conservative Party -- could be formed.

2. How does a no-confidence vote work?

Every member of Parliament votes on whether to continue supporting the sitting government. Johnson’s Conservative Party doesn’t have a majority in the chamber and relies on the support of 10 Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party lawmakers. It’s not a given the DUP will support him, though they back his Brexit policy so far. Johnson also can’t guarantee that all Conservatives will vote for him: Dozens of Tories are unhappy with his threat to pull the U.K. out of the EU without an agreement to order the process -- a so-called no-deal Brexit -- and several have left open the possibility of voting against their own government to prevent that. Whether they would be prepared to do it so early is debatable. The pressure to conform would be immense.

3. Wasn’t Johnson just elected?

Yes. The 180,000 grassroots Conservative members elected him to replace Theresa May as party leader and prime minister at the end of July. But his support hasn’t been tested yet in Parliament.

4. What happens if he loses a no-confidence vote?

The law governing this process only passed in 2011, and has never been fully tested. The only thing that’s clear is that party leaders would have 14 days to form a government that can win a confidence vote with a simple majority. The Conservatives, as the party with the most seats, would have the first chance, but Labour can also try, perhaps by courting smaller parties that back a rerun of the 2016 Brexit referendum. Or in the current extraordinary circumstances, some sort of national unity government that backs a milder variety of Brexit might be formed. If no government can win a vote after 14 days, Parliament is said to be dissolved and a general election is scheduled.

5. Then what?

It’s up to the prime minister to set the date of an election, and that’s crucial in determining whether a no-deal exit can be avoided. According to the Sunday Telegraph, Dominic Cummings, a key government adviser, reckons Johnson could delay the election until after Oct. 31 -- allowing the country to tumble out of the bloc in the meantime. That would pitch the country into an unprecedented constitutional crisis. Having lost a confidence vote in his government, the rules say Johnson would effectively be a caretaker leader, limited in what he can instruct the civil service to do and what resources to spend. There’s also speculation Johnson could refuse to resign if he loses a confidence vote. That would risk bringing the Queen into frontline politics -- another constitutional drama. Gina Miller, an anti-Brexit campaigner whose court battles have already shaped the process for leaving the EU, said she’s preparing a legal challenge in case Johnson refuses to step down.

6. What happens if a no-confidence vote fails?

Johnson’s relief could be temporary, as there’s no limit to how many times such votes can be called. However, the Labour Party has been reluctant to hold confidence votes it doesn’t think it can win, and the time available to avoid a no-deal Brexit is running out.

7. When was the last no-confidence vote?

May survived an attempt to oust her government in a no-confidence vote Jan. 16, when the House of Commons supported her 325 to 306. That was the day after a version of her Brexit agreement with the EU was defeated in the largest parliamentary margin in more than a century. The last time such a motion forced a change of government was in 1979, when the Labour government lost by one vote, triggering an election that brought Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher to power. May also survived a different kind of confidence vote, one triggered by fellow Conservatives that aimed to replace her as party leader and prime minister, but keeping the party in office.

The Reference Shelf

• Parliament’s guide to motions of no-confidence.
• A trader’s guide to no-confidence votes.
• The U.K. Cabinet Manual details procedures for Parliament.
• The Fixed-term Parliaments Act of 2011 establishes election timetables.

--With assistance from Kitty Donaldson.

To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net;Emma Ross-Thomas in London at erossthomas@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.net, Leah Harrison Singer, Stuart Biggs

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