Why Tensions Between the U.S. and Iran Fuel Fears of War
What’s at stake in the conflict? The stability of the Middle East.
(Bloomberg) -- The enmity between the U.S. and Iran that boiled over at the start of 2020, and which included the targeted killing of Iran’s most prominent military leader, was decades in the making. It’s included a U.S.-orchestrated coup, the taking of American hostages in Tehran, the accidental shootdown of an Iranian passenger jet and the declaration by then-President George W. Bush that Iran was part of an “axis of evil.” American presidents have tried different strategies to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb, a struggle that underpins the latest exchange of hostilities.
1. What is this latest conflict over?
After taking office in 2017, President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. from an international agreement that restricted Iran’s nuclear work in exchange for relief from economic sanctions that had cut off its oil exports. As the U.S. reimposed old sanctions and added new ones, Iran exceeded the limits on its nuclear program, and it was suspected of being behind a drone and cruise missile assault on Saudi Arabian oil facilities in September 2019. That was the state of play when the latest series of attacks and reprisals began.
2. What triggered this spiral?
A Dec. 27 rocket assault on an Iraqi base killed an American contractor. The U.S. responded with air strikes on five bases in Iraq and Syria used by Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia closely associated with Iran. On Dec. 31, dozens of Iraqi militiamen and their supporters stormed the U.S. embassy complex in Baghdad. On Jan. 2, a targeted U.S. strike on vehicles near Baghdad’s airport killed Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds force, who the U.S. said was plotting attacks against Americans. Iran retaliated with a Jan. 8 missile attack on U.S. bases in Iraq, which resulted in no American casualties.
3. How long have the U.S. and Iran been at odds?
Their discord is rooted in U.S. backing for the 1953 coup ousting Iran’s nationalist prime minister and re-installing the monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was sympathetic to the West. When Islamic revolutionaries took over Iran in 1979, forcing the shah to flee to the U.S., militants seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran and held 52 Americans hostage for more than a year, demanding the shah’s return. The U.S. severed relations and began to impose sanctions, which grew over the years. The U.S. has listed Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism since 1984. In April, it named the Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s premier military force, a terrorist organization, the first time it has applied that designation to a state institution.
4. Why did Trump disrupt the nuclear deal?
He objected to the fact that its constraints are due to expire over time. He says he wants to ensure Iran is prevented from having a nuclear weapon “forever.” He also complains that the accord does not address what he sees as Iran’s malign behavior in the Middle East, its support for terrorism or its ballistic missile program.
5. What’s been the impact on Iran?
Iran is producing oil at the slowest clip since 1986, making the sanctions one of the biggest challenges confronting its economy since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The sanctions have fueled inflation and undermined domestic support for President Hassan Rouhani’s government, which negotiated the nuclear deal. A surge in gasoline prices sparked protests in late 2019 that authorities put down with force that may have resulted in more than 1,000 deaths, according to U.S. officials. The nuclear deal was supposed to yield economic advantages for Iran, but renewed U.S. sanctions have shattered that expectation.
6. What has Iran done in response?
It confirmed that it surpassed agreed caps on its stockpiles of enriched uranium and exceeded the allowable level of purity. After the killing of Qassem, it said it was no longer bound by any of the atomic limits imposed by the deal. In addition to the Sept. 14 attacks on two Saudi crude oil production plants that created the single biggest disruption in supply on record, the U.S. blames Iran for a spate of vessel attacks in the Persian Gulf. Iran denies involvement in both incidents.
The Reference Shelf
- QuickTake explainers on Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s proxy network and how close Iran is to having the bomb.
- A Bloomberg Businessweek article on Iran’s ability to hold the global economy hostage.
- A Congressional Research Service report on efforts by non-U.S. signatories to the Iran nuclear accord to preserve it.
- Bloomberg Opinion columnist Eli Lake says the U.S. won’t be bullied into treating Iran like a normal country.
--With assistance from Nick Wadhams.
To contact the reporters on this story: David Wainer in New York at dwainer3@bloomberg.net;Glen Carey in Washington at gcarey8@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Bill Faries at wfaries@bloomberg.net, Lisa Beyer
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