Who’s Expected to Stay and Go in Japan’s Cabinet Reshuffle

(Bloomberg) -- Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will reshuffle his cabinet and ruling party leaders Wednesday as he tries to maintain support for his government in the face of a looming tax hike and trade battle with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Abe, 64, whose string of six straight national election victories has set him on course to become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister in November, has said his picks will be a combination of continuity and new faces.

Here are some of the major points to watch for:

1. Who gets to stay on?

One person trusted with keeping the economy on course and another with directing Abe’s political agenda are set to stay. Weeks ahead of the Oct. 1 hike in the sales tax to 10% from 8%, Finance Minister Taro Aso, 78, who also serves as Deputy Prime Minister and heads a key faction within Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, is pegged to stay in his post, according to the Nikkei newspaper. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, a 70-year-old known for his loyalty to Abe, is also likely to retain his post as the chief government spokesman, the Nikkei said. Toshihiro Nikai, 80, is in line to stay in his post as LDP Secretary General.

2. How will Abe deal with successors?

With two years left to run on Abe’s term as party leader, a poll published by the Nikkei newspaper this month found Shinjiro Koizumi, the 38-year-old son of a former premier, was respondents’ top choice to succeed him. He’s likely to join the cabinet for the first time, public broadcaster NHK reported.

Current Foreign Minister Taro Kono, 56, also figures among prospective future leaders, and was expected be switched to defense minister, public broadcaster NHK said. The post -- fraught with problems -- may prompt a change of tone on his light-hearted Twitter feed with nearly 1 million followers.

Fumio Kishida, 62, tipped by Abe as a future leader, is likely to stay in his job as party policy chief, the Yomiuri newspaper said. And dark horse candidate Katsunobu Kato, 63, will return to the cabinet as Minister for Health, Labor and Welfare, according to NHK.

3. Will Abe’s cabinet show more diversity?

Former Olympic speed skater and cyclist Seiko Hashimoto is widely reported to be in line to serve as minister for the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. Sanae Takaichi may also return to the position of Internal Affairs Minister, thereby doubling the number of women to two out of 20 cabinet members.

4. Who will handle U.S.-Japan trade talks?

Abe and Trump last month announced they had reached an outline deal on trade, which they aim to sign in New York in late September, though many of the details are far from clear.

Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, 63, who has led the negotiations thus far, is under consideration to switch to foreign minister, the Sankei newspaper said. Former trade bureaucrat Yasutoshi Nishimura, 56, is likely to take over the economy post, but Motegi may keep the U.S. trade portfolio, rather than hand it to someone else at a crucial stage.

5. How will it impact the South Korea feud?

Voters have supported Abe’s tough stand against South Korea amid a feud that has turned relations between the neighbors their coldest in decades. The prime minister is set to jettison Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya, who has come under fire from some in the LDP for appearing too friendly when greeting his South Korean counterpart.

Trade Minister Hiroshige Seko, 56, who has played a role in the spat with South Korea that included placing export restrictions on materials vital to its neighbor’s tech sector, may switch to a party post, FNN reported. His successor is set to be Isshu Sugawara, 57, a former vice finance minister also known for his youthful prowess as a disco dancing champion.

--With assistance from Takashi Hirokawa and Karen Leigh.

To contact the reporter on this story: Isabel Reynolds in Tokyo at ireynolds1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Brendan Scott at bscott66@bloomberg.net, Jon Herskovitz

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