When and How Will the U.K. Coronavirus Lockdown End? 

(Bloomberg) --

The U.K. has been in a nationwide lockdown since March 23 in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus. But closing schools, shops and businesses has come with a heavy economic price, and pressure is building on the government to relax the confinement.

Here’s what happens next:

When will the U.K. ease restrictions?

Not for another three weeks at least, and it could take even longer.

In March, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said his aim was to “turn the tide” on the virus within 12 weeks -- which would take us into June.

Neil Ferguson, a professor at Imperial College London and a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, has said a form of social distancing may be required until a vaccine has been developed -- which could be many months away.

Will there be phased changes?

Reports suggest the government is considering a staged approach, under which it would allow some businesses and schools to re-open in early to mid-May, and gradually relax the restrictions on people leaving their homes.

Pubs and restaurants would likely re-open later in the summer, and restrictions could also be lifted by age group, with younger people perhaps able to go back to work first.

How will the government decide whether to lift restrictions?

Johnson and his team say they are being guided by the scientific evidence from SAGE, which is monitoring data points like the death rate and rates of infection. The scientists are keen to see the transmission rate of the virus significantly reduced before relaxing measures.

The government has set out five tests that need to be met before lifting restrictions, which are:

• Ensuring the National Health Service has sufficient capacity
• A sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rate
• Decreasing rate of infection
• Supplies of testing and personal protective equipment (PPE) able to meet demand
• No risk of a second peak of the virus

So far, the government has ensured the NHS has enough spare beds, and there are signs the death rate may have peaked. But it is still far from meeting its target for processing 100,000 tests a day and is struggling to ensure health workers have adequate supplies of PPE.

“That’s a really difficult balancing act and all things will be under consideration,” Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam said at a press conference on Tuesday.

Are the public complying?

The initial evidence is that Britons are largely complying with the social distancing rules by staying at home. The lockdown has also received overwhelming public support: 91% of Britons said they support the three-week extension, according to a YouGov poll of 3,430 people.

Who will make the final decision?

The U.K. government works on the principle of collective responsibility, so, in theory, the Cabinet will reach a decision by consensus. But there are signs top ministers are split over how quickly to lift the lockdown.

At the weekend, Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove said he welcomed a “public debate” on the question of how and when the lockdown should be lifted, but Health Secretary Matt Hancock has consistently warned against discussing the matter until deaths and infections have reduced further.

The tension is around limiting the damage to the economy -- which itself has a considerable human cost in the form of unemployment and poverty -- and stopping deaths from the virus.

Will Johnson have the casting vote?

The Prime Minister is currently recovering at his Chequers country residence after being hospitalized with the virus. He isn’t doing government work, but he is being kept updated on developments.

Johnson is said to be particularly cautious about the risks of a second wave of the virus, which suggests the U.K.’s lockdown could continue for some time yet.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.