Angela Merkel’s EU Candidate to Replace Juncker Is Struggling

(Bloomberg) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s candidate for the European Commission is running out of time and luck, raising the prospect that she may need to change tack and prioritize the European Central Bank’s top job instead.

German officials recognize that Manfred Weber is struggling to convince as a future Commission president and are preparing for a shift in emphasis if needed to Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann’s bid for the ECB, according to people familiar with the matter. They declined to be identified, because such discussions are confidential.

Merkel’s two-pronged strategy to secure a top EU role for Germany after more than half a century without one is to clinch either the Commission or the central bank for one of her compatriots. While Weber’s campaign has been underwhelming, Weidmann’s opposition to some of ECB President Mario Draghi’s policies, such as his Outright Monetary Transactions tool that stemmed the region’s debt crisis, has infused his candidacy with controversy.

“If the Germans don’t get the Commission president, then the pressure will rise for the ECB,” said Janwillem Acket, chief economist at Julius Baer. “There’s never been a German at the head of the ECB before.”

Talks between leaders are currently at a stalemate, complicated further by the need for the European Parliament to approve the Commission nominee. The chancellor and her counterparts are expected to discuss the array of top EU vacancies due this year at a summit in Brussels later this week.

Merkel’s approach to the talks has been unprecedented for Germany, with the most ambitious push for senior EU positions that the country has ever undertaken. Her argument is that Europe’s most populous nation and biggest economy deserves a turn.

As with previous key moments in EU history, the most crucial axis in the matter is that of France and Germany, particularly Merkel’s dialog with French President Emmanuel Macron. Officials from other countries are essentially waiting for the two of them to reach some common ground.

Still, Merkel hasn’t given up yet on Weber’s bid to replace Jean-Claude Juncker. She will seek some sort of agreement this week on the package of jobs, according to one of the officials.

Late on Monday Merkel defended the "Spitzenkandidat" principle by which the EU Commission chief is appointed from winning EU party nominees, a process Macron has said is too automatic. A choice would be made by the time parliament convenes and chooses its new president, Merkel said.

Weber’s candidacy rests on his nomination by the European People’s Party grouping that Merkel’s CDU and Weber’s CSU belong to in the European Parliament, part of the legislature’s bid for a more influential role in forming the Commission. Macron has pushed back against that process, while the parliament itself can’t currently agree on a single candidate.

Merkel’s coalition also divides along party lines for the Commission role, with the Social Democrats currently favoring Frans Timmermans, the Dutch so-called “Spitzenkandidat” of their grouping in the European Parliament.

Steffen Seibert, Merkel’s spokesman, said on Monday at a press conference that the ruling coalition might revisit its approach to EU jobs “at the appropriate time.” That could pave the way for a stronger push for Weidmann, since both governing parties are said to back his candidacy.

Weidmann enjoys less consensus elsewhere however. His is the most controversial bid for the ECB presidency, attracting strong opposition from some countries.

“I ask whether someone like Weidmann, who is clearly qualified, would be accepted by the Southern Europeans,” said Baer’s Acket.

--With assistance from Arne Delfs.

To contact the reporters on this story: Birgit Jennen in Berlin at bjennen1@bloomberg.net;Catherine Bosley in Zurich at cbosley1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at cstirling1@bloomberg.net, ;Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Raymond Colitt

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