Unrest Risks a Domino Effect in Latin America

(Bloomberg) --

It’s starting to feel like dominoes.

One by one, countries across Latin America are succumbing to unrest. It doesn’t matter if governments are from the left or right. People are tired of austerity, with some countries suffering years of stagnant economic growth and fed up with graft.

The latest to face mass protests is Colombia. Perhaps having seen what has happened in places like Chile, Ecuador and Bolivia, unions and student groups are pressing President Ivan Duque to tackle a long list of problems.

The movements might be taking energy from each other, though some could also be simply coincidence. A big question is where they might erupt next.

So far Mexico, Argentina and Brazil have escaped serious contagion. But even in the bigger economies, there’s potential risk.

Argentina’s incoming president has promised to spend big to address inequality, but with empty coffers it’s unclear how he can. That could spur a backlash from voters. In Mexico, the president is struggling to limit drug cartel-related violence. Brazil has a history of mass protests coming on fast (over things like hikes in transit costs).

In all three, the leaders will do well to get ahead of any discontent before sparks ignite.

Global Headlines

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Simmering unrest | Hong Kong’s embattled leader Carrie Lam risked stoking further discontent when she made no new concessions to protesters after the landslide win by pro-democracy candidates in weekend district council elections. Lam acknowledged the public’s “unhappiness” today and vowed to “seriously reflect on these views,” but she continued to advocate a previously outlined plan that seeks peaceful dialogue with citizens.

Double-edged sword | President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s retool of Ukraine’s law enforcement is under way as he dismisses prosecutors, reorganizes investigatory bodies and reassigns cases to crack down on the corruption that has held the country back for decades. From Trump’s vantage point, the anti-graft drive may reinvigorate a line of investigation he’s dearly sought — into natural-gas company Burisma — but it also might shake loose information he’d prefer was left unexplored.

What to Watch

• A four-day-old coalition government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party collapsed in India's richest state of Maharashtra after the chief minister said he’d resign, lacking a majority in the legislature.
• Beijing says chief trade negotiators agreed in a phone call with the U.S. to stay in touch on the outstanding issues preventing a “phase one” deal.
• Trump will pardon two turkeys — named Bread and Butter — as part of annual Thanksgiving events at the White House, before departing to Florida for a campaign rally.

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And finally ... A continent blighted by the world’s highest maternal mortality rate and scant legal protection for women beats all other regions in the proportion of females on company boards. In Africa, one in four board members are women. That’s better than Europe at 23% and well ahead of Latin America at 7%, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. The world average for female representation on boards is 17%.

--With assistance from Kathleen Hunter, Karen Leigh and Tim Ross.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Winfrey at mwinfrey@bloomberg.net

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