Unintended Consequences of Trump’s Brash Moves

(Bloomberg) --

U.S. President Donald Trump is finding his penchant for unpredictable decisions has consequences.

His decision to order the killing of an Iranian general last week has rallied people in Iran behind hardliners, put the war against Islamic State further on ice, and prompted Iraq’s parliament to vote to expel American troops from its territory — a goal long cherished by Tehran.

At home, his former national security adviser’s agreement to testify at Trump’s Senate impeachment trial if he’s subpoenaed challenged Republican hopes for a quick dismissal.

John Bolton was a key figure in Trump’s off-the-cuff conversations with Ukraine’s leader that led to the president’s impeachment in the House. As Josh Wingrove reports, he could potentially reveal what Trump said privately as he pushed Ukraine to probe former Vice President Joe Biden — a Democratic rival in the 2020 race — and his son Hunter.

The chances the Republican-controlled Senate will remove the president are still remote. But an element of risk has been added to the mix. And in the Middle East, the fallout from the killing of Qassem Soleimani could leave U.S. policy in the region in disarray.

The outpouring of emotion in Iran over Soleimani’s death suggests the U.S. action had unintended results, undermining Washington’s efforts to isolate Tehran and fostering public support for a government that just a few weeks ago had been rocked by protests.

Global Headlines

Just in: At least 35 people were killed and 48 injured in a stampede at the funeral for Soleimani in his home town of Kerman in southeastern Iran, Iranian state TV reported.

Iran’s decision | Tehran is assessing 13 scenarios to respond to the U.S. killing of Soleimani, the head of its national security council was quoted as saying by Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency. The news comes as the Pentagon sent additional forces to the Middle East and Defense Secretary Mark Esper insisted the U.S. hasn’t decided to leave Iraq following reports of a letter telling military officials American forces were repositioning in advance of a departure.

Tight timeline | After feeling ignored over Brexit, British business is hoping for a change of fortune in 2020. As Prime Minister Boris Johnson prepares to start trade talks with the European Union tomorrow, U.K. companies are gearing up to lobby for a final accord that limits any economic disruption. At stake is unimpeded access to the U.K.’s single biggest export market.

Biden’s back | Biden is making a late surge in Iowa, where the Feb. 3 caucuses are the Democratic party’s first nominating contest for this year’s presidential election. While he remains the national front-runner, he’s now bunched at the top of the polls in the crucial state with the other top three candidates — Pete Buttigieg, Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

Showdown looms | Venezuela’s political confrontation is intensifying with both opposition leader Juan Guaido and the government ally who says he’s replaced him as legislative head announcing plans to open a session at the National Assembly today. It comes as a senior U.S. official warned the Trump administration had underestimated Russian and Cuban support for President Nicolas Maduro, who Guaido is trying to oust.

Spanish experiment | Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez is set to claim a second term in office with a confidence vote around midday in Madrid. He’ll be leading Spain’s first coalition administration since the civil war in the 1930s as the anti-establishment party Podemos enters government for the first time, with a mandate to help those who’ve felt left behind by the economic recovery.

What to Watch

• Germany has temporarily moved some troops from Iraq due to safety concerns following Soleimani’s death.
• Argentina’s foreign affairs minister, Felipe Sola, is due to travel to Mexico City as both countries try to build a regional, left-wing political alliance and the administration of President Alberto Fernandez works to realign Buenos Aries’s foreign policy.
• Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo has vowed he will not compromise the country’s sovereignty in the South China Sea amid recent sighting of Chinese fishing vessels near the disputed Natuna Islands. Jokowi is set to travel to the islands tomorrow to assess the situation.

Tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally ... Fears of a public health outbreak following a surge of mysterious pneumonia cases in mainland China are giving Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam a chance to shift attention away from months of protests. Doctors have ruled out all known causes of respiratory diseases, but there is one potential clue. Some patients worked at a seafood market where birds, snakes and rabbit organs were reportedly sold. Still, doctors say there are significant differences to another animal-origin virus, SARS, which killed nearly 800 people in China 17 years ago.

--With assistance from Rosalind Mathieson, Ben Sills and Alan Crawford.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Ruth Pollard at rpollard2@bloomberg.net

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