U.K. Tories See Opportunity and Threats in Their Game of Thrones

(Bloomberg) -- British Conservatives may have suffered their worst election results ever, but their members of parliament are still feeling loved. Barely a day goes by without an invitation to coffee from one senior minister or another, hoping to win their support in the coming race to succeed Theresa May.

Perhaps they would like to come to the Foreign Office, to chat with Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt? It’s been too long since they caught up with Home Secretary Sajid Javid -- they really must get together. Earlier this month, one veteran member of parliament scrolled through the invitations on his phone, laughing as he read them out.

The flattery, and sudden enthusiasm to hear their views about the future of British politics, are a relief from the misery of EU elections that saw the Tory vote collapse. But this is moment of risk for the party’s MPs. In the snakes and ladders game of political advancement that is British politics, the board is about to be rearranged.

A leadership election changes much more than the identity of the prime minister. The forces that have run the government for the last three years -- the internal rivalries and informal power structures, the policy priorities and the no-go areas -- are all about to shift. The contest itself is likely to create new alliances and feuds that ambitious MPs will have to navigate.

Smart Move?

And while a smart move at this tipping point can catapult you ahead, a mistake can see your hopes dashed.

Take George Osborne. In 2005, he was a relatively new MP in a party that was stuck in opposition. But after he ran David Cameron’s successful campaign to lead the Conservatives -- then in opposition -- he was secure in the post as the party’s Treasury spokesman, on course to become the youngest Chancellor of the Exchequer.

For the decade that followed, he was Cameron’s heir apparent, the man around whom ambitious Tory MPs built their careers. But his aggressive campaign against Brexit in 2016 so damaged his stock with Tory members that when Cameron resigned in 2016, Osborne didn’t even stand.

Osborne was summarily fired by the woman who won the ensuing contest, May, and the ministers who had ridden his coattails found themselves sidelined.

Job Hunting

But for others, the arrival of May represented a reversal of their fortunes. In May 2016, Chris Grayling was Leader of the House of Commons, a job usually done by ministers on their way out. Then he ran May’s successful campaign and found his star on the rise once more. He was appointed Transport Secretary, and his subsequent survival of a series of mishaps in that role is probably partly the result of May’s loyalty to him.

As May prepares to step down, those near the top of the ladder know they too are at risk. One current Cabinet member joked privately at the weekend that he’d soon be job hunting.

The risk isn’t all in one direction. Reorganizing the government means that a prime minister almost inevitably starts their career by making enemies. Anyone sacked from the Cabinet knows there’s a strong chance they won’t be back, so their incentive to loyally toe the line is gone. After his dismissal, Osborne quit Parliament and became editor of London’s Evening Standard newspaper, using his platform to take revenge on May. Nicky Morgan, another sacked minister, went to the backbenches and sniped at the government from there.

Making Enemies

And then there are the enemies that a new leader makes when someone’s hopes of advancement are dashed. In 2005, Boris Johnson backed Cameron at a crucial moment, helping to turn the race. But his reward was to be appointed a junior spokesman in the education brief. Johnson had to leave Parliament and become London Mayor to rise in Cameron’s Conservative Party. That might explain why, when Cameron asked Johnson to campaign against Brexit in 2016, Johnson didn’t feel he had to oblige.

Johnson’s previous run for the Tory leadership, in 2016, revealed a previously unknown risk. He’d selected fellow Brexit-backer Michael Gove as his campaign manager, but after five days, Gove had become so frustrated with trying to organize Johnson that he announced he would run for leader himself. Johnson dropped out before he’d even begun. A collateral victim of that was Gove’s then ally Dominic Raab, who became pretty much the last person to publicly back Johnson for leader, in a piece published in the Sun newspaper just as Gove was changing course. Within hours of endorsing Johnson, Raab was on television talking up Gove. This time, all three are running for leader.

When choosing a candidate to back, it’s worth bearing in mind that not all of them plan to go the distance. Some are only running to secure future advancement. But then, some promises of support are made on a similarly conditional basis, with the understanding that once your old college friend has dropped out of the race, you’ll shift to the person you really want to be leader.

Not every MP declares their support, and the votes in the leadership ballot are secret. So the ambitious might be tempted to offer private support to several candidates. But there is a risk there, too. By tradition, once the contest is over, the rival campaign managers go for a drink and compare their lists of private supporters to see whose name appears twice -- or more.

To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Matthew Brockett

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