U.K.’s Liberal Democrats See Opportunity in Brexit Party Retreat

(Bloomberg) -- The U.K.’s Liberal Democrats are poised to cash in on Nigel Farage’s decision to ally himself to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives because it clarifies the choice for voters, according to party leader Jo Swinson.

Farage’s announcement that his Brexit Party won’t run candidates in Tory-held seats means moderate supporters of the prime minister’s party will turn to the pro-EU Liberal Democrats to block a chaotic split from the European Union, Swinson said.

“It makes it easier for us to appeal to those one-nation Conservative voters who will be appalled that Boris Johnson has cooked up this deal with Farage,” Swinson said in an interview. “It makes it absolutely clear that the Conservative Party is a hard-Brexit party that’s prepared to risk a no-deal Brexit at the end of next year.”

The Liberal Democrats are trying to rebound from elections in 2015 and 2017 when they won just 8 and 12 seats out of 650 in Parliament -- down from a high of 62 in 2005. With an offer of canceling Brexit altogether, they’re appealing to disaffected Tories who reject the EU divorce deal struck by Johnson, and to Labour supporters frustrated by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn’s pledge to renegotiate Brexit before a second referendum.

It’s in Tory-held seats where the Liberal Democrats are most likely to challenge. In 2017, 29 of the 38 seats where they came second were won by Tories. Two years later, Swinson said, the Tories “have gone off to the extremes,” and the Liberal Democrats are looking to pick off their voters.

Trump Impact

Farage presented his decision as a “unilateral” alliance and Johnson has insisted there wasn’t a deal -- but that isn’t stopping Swinson from claiming the Tories are tarred by association. U.S. President Donald Trump urged them to work together, something she is keen for voters not to forget.

“There are many Conservatives who voted Remain, or are in that one-nation Conservative tradition, who look on in horror and are seriously thinking about coming to the Liberal Democrats,” she said. “This deal between Farage and Johnson, very much egged on by President Trump, is certainly going to make that part of our task that little bit easier.”

A YouGov poll after the Brexit Party pullout put the Tories on 42%, Labour on 28% and Swinson’s party on 15%.

Many Liberal Democrat target seats are in Brexit-supporting southwest England, making their pledge to stay in the EU a tricky sell. Swinson twice refused to be drawn on whether the Brexit Party pullout damages their chances there because it will unify pro-Brexit support behind Tory candidates.

Alliances

“Brexit is hugely important, but it isn’t the defining issue for every single person,” she said, listing policies on mental health care, education, and climate change. For voters seeking change, in many seats her party is best-placed to beat the Tories, she said.

The Liberal Democrats have struck a pact in 60 seats with the Greens and Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru in which candidates will stand aside to give the other parties a clearer run. Swinson said the negotiations weren’t easy, and that deals in other seats aren’t “massively likely.”

On Tuesday, she suffered a blow when one of her candidates pulled out of the race in Canterbury in order to give the pro-EU Labour candidate a better chance. The move appeared not to have be cleared by the leadership, and the party said they would field a new candidate.

Swinson has repeatedly said she’s standing to be the country’s next prime minister -- a grand ambition for someone whose party won less than 2% of the seats in 2017. A more likely outcome is a hung Parliament, but she ruled out propping up either Johnson or Corbyn, and suggested her support is unlikely even if the party leaders change.

As for her ambition to be premier, she refused to lower her expectations.

“I’m not saying that I don’t recognize the scale of the challenge, but I am saying that I’m determined for us to be more ambitious than ever before,” she said. “I look at Boris Johnson on the one hand, and Jeremy Corbyn on the other hand, and I’m absolutely certain that I could do a better job than either of them.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Thomas Penny, Stuart Biggs

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