U.K. Faces Inevitable Surge in Hospital Cases From Omicron
U.K. Faces Inevitable Surge in Hospital Cases From Omicron
(Bloomberg) -- The “phenomenal pace” at which the new Covid-19 omicron strain is spreading across the U.K. will trigger a surge in hospital admissions over the holiday period, according to Boris Johnson’s top medical adviser.
“Substantial numbers” of people will be hospitalized and that will “become apparent soon after Christmas,” Chris Whitty, chief medical officer for England, said at a televised press conference alongside the prime minister Wednesday.
That is a “reasonably nailed on prospect,” he added, using a Britishism to refer to an outcome being certain.
The stark assessment of the threat posed by omicron, on the day the U.K. reported a record number of new coronavirus cases, will raise further questions about the steps taken by Johnson’s government to tackle the variant and whether the National Health Service can withstand the surge in infections.
The gloomy outlook is also a major blow for Johnson, who has staked considerable political capital on keeping curbs to a minimum over Christmas after a late U-turn last year triggered chaos.
More Boosters
His government is focusing on a mass booster vaccination program to get the country through the crisis, coupled with relatively light restrictions -- such as mandatory face masks indoors and Covid passes to enter some venues -- to try to limit omicron’s spread and buy time for the vaccine doses to work.
Yet while he didn’t say further measures are needed now, Whitty’s warning about post-Christmas hospitalizations was effectively also a warning for people to limit social contacts, given the lag between infection and serious illness.
In other developments:
- NHS England’s Nikki Kanani said people should go to football stadiums to get vaccinated, not to watch matches
- Whitty said people should prioritize social contact that matters to them, and otherwise avoid it if possible
Meanwhile Johnson has repeatedly said people should not cancel events and said again on Wednesday that this Christmas will be better than the last.
His popularity has nosedived over allegations his staff held rule-breaking parties in his Downing Street office last year, while he also suffered the biggest parliamentary rebellion of his premiership this week as Tories objected to the limited Covid curbs he has brought in.
Warnings
The approach has led to warnings from doctors and scientists that the sheer number of infections expected mean the NHS may be unable to cope.
On Thursday, Katherine Henderson, President at The Royal College of Emergency Medicine, warned that while hospitalizations aren’t yet ticking up, staff absences due to Covid are already affecting services.
“We’re seeing increasingly that our staff are testing positive,” meaning an enforced 10-day absence rather than the 2 days people would typically be ill, Henderson told BBC radio. “We’re already seeing the effect in terms of not having the staff to run shifts properly and safely.”
Meanwhile the Telegraph reported that ministers are trying to ramp up testing capacity amid warnings that labs face being overwhelmed by demand.
Whitty also called for caution over early data from South Africa that suggests the strain may cause less severe illness than previous variants, saying the amount of immunity in the country was “far higher” than during its last wave and that may account for the difference. He said there was a danger of people misinterpreting the data to downplay the risks.
“All the things we do know are bad,” he said. “This is a very serious threat.”
Both Johnson and Whitty conceded that the omicron surge will be disruptive to businesses and the NHS, with Johnson saying he would do everything he can to keep supply chains moving.
“Very large numbers of people are going to get covid at the same time,” Whitty said. “That will mean significant problems in providing staff.”
Britain’s businesses urged the government to give it extra support as the omicron wave takes hold, arguing that many companies are suffering as people reduce going out and hence spend less in venues such as restaurants and bars.
“The rhetoric risks instilling a lockdown mentality when in reality the proposed measures are far short of that,” the Confederation of British Industry, the U.K.’s largest business lobby group, said in a statement. “The result is a double whammy to firms who see demand fall without commensurate support.”
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