U.K. Doesn’t See EU Moving on Brexit for at Least a Month

(Bloomberg) -- The U.K. government doesn’t expect the European Union to shift its Brexit position for at least a month while it waits to see how British politicians opposed to leaving the bloc play their hand in Parliament, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson reiterated his position on Monday that to strike a divorce deal, the EU must reopen the withdrawal agreement it negotiated with his predecessor, Theresa May. In calls with Portuguese premier Antonio Costa and his Belgian counterpart Charles Michel, Johnson said any deal must abolish the so-called Irish backstop, a fall-back position designed to keep the border with Ireland -- the U.K.’s land frontier with the EU -- free of checks.

That’s something EU leaders have said they won’t accept, and Johnson has promised to deliver Brexit “do or die,” with or without a deal, by Oct. 31.

But members of Parliament who oppose a no-deal Brexit are plotting ways to frustrate him, and that means Johnson’s standoff with the EU is likely to continue until Parliament returns in September as the bloc waits to see if they can tie the government’s hands, according to the person, who asked not to be named discussing the administration’s thinking. Sept. 9 is shaping up to be the date when those rebels could act, the person said.

Stopping Brexit

That’s because under an amendment to legislation forced through by Tory rebels last month, the government is required to make a statement Sept. 4 about progress toward restoring the Northern Ireland Executive, and hold a debate five days later. MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit could use that to seize control of Parliament’s agenda, a necessary first step if they want to prevent the U.K. from leaving the EU without a divorce agreement.

The debate, and votes around it, will be a first indication of the strength of the no-deal Brexit opposition in Parliament, and whether there is a route to tying Johnson’s hands. After that, the EU will have a clearer idea of what parliamentary rebels are able to do, the person said.

Some MPs are working to prevent Johnson from calling a general election before Oct. 31 to force through a no-deal Brexit, according to a strategy memo seen by Bloomberg and reported by the Times newspaper.

The document by the People’s Vote campaign, signed by Tory rebel Dominic Grieve and Labour MP Margaret Beckett, calls for MPs to defeat the government in a no-confidence vote. Rather than use the 14-day period that follows to try to form a government, the plan says politicians should use the time to try to legislate to compel the government to delay Brexit.

Election Risk

The prospect of fighting a general election with Brexit delayed could compel more Conservative politicians -- and even Johnson himself -- to accept the need for a second referendum, Grieve and Beckett write.

They also warned that too much focus on which parliamentary processes they could use to prevent a no-deal Brexit risks playing into the government’s preferred narrative that politicians “are frustrating rather than protecting democracy.” Rather, MPs must “reassert with clarity and conviction the democratic principles that underpin our campaign,” they wrote.

In the meantime, the EU standoff continues. Though the prime minister has spoken by phone with EU leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron since taking office last month, he’s yet to meet them in person. He’s due to meet both at the Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France at the end of August.

Johnson is prepared to meet with leaders face-to-face to lay out his position, but no negotiation is really possible until the bloc retreats from its red line on re-opening the withdrawal agreement, the person familiar with the matter said.

There’s no indication Johnson is preparing to back down, and there are growing signs that his government is preparing for an early general election. Johnson has announced a slew of domestic policy initiatives including hiring more police, expanding prisons and plowing more cash into the National Health Service.

“This is a pre-election period,” Labour’s home affairs spokeswoman, Diane Abbott, told BBC radio on Monday. “Even if he doesn’t go ahead and have an election in the autumn, he’s clearing the ground.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net;Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net;Jessica Shankleman in London at jshankleman@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Stuart Biggs, Robert Hutton

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.